{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T11:33:42Z","timestamp":1792668822678,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"30","funder":[{"name":"Sino-German (CSC-DAAD) Postdoc Scholarship Program"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strongly shapes tropical rainfall and global circulation, yet its response to carbon dioxide (CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) forcing remains uncertain. Climate models project a long-term narrowing of the ITCZ under warming, but recent decades instead show a poleward expansion linked to eastern tropical Pacific cooling. Using a 30-member ensemble of abruptly quadrupled CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    experiments, we identify a two-phase evolution: a fast expansion over the first decade, driven by basin-wide relative cooling in the equatorial Pacific, followed by a slow contraction as equatorial warming strengthens. Applying this framework to a 1%-per-year CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    scenario reveals that the slow phase dominates only after \u223c80 years, when the CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    levels more than double relative to preindustrial, suggesting that present-day conditions are still dominated by the fast response. This potentially reconciles recent ITCZ expansion with long-term projections of contraction, underscoring the importance of accounting for timescale-dependent processes when interpreting past trends and projecting near-term climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aef2833","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T17:58:55Z","timestamp":1784829535000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Fast expansion and slow contraction of the ITCZ in response to CO\n                    <sub>2<\/sub>\n                    forcing"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2175-9350","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiayu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4635-275X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sarah M.","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-18-0434.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-17-6365-2024"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms15771"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2015GL064119"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019MS001999"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1418682112"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL070396"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0767.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40641-018-0110-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-19-0013.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-019-0603-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JCLI3329.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL079599"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL082969"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL075235"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-12167-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL089846"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(1996)009<2190:AODT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-021-01101-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-024-07452-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JCLI3466.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-17-0323.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1911015117"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0690.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0328.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018MS001400"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-024-02034-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo1792"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1987)115<0003:MTCBOT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2315124121"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL101249"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-025-01020-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL072355"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-021-05818-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL095708"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeb7004"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL100011"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-023-01256-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-83-11-1631"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-1937-2016"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abd3021"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL074972"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","first-page":"4407","article-title":"Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century","volume":"108","author":"Rayner N. A.","year":"2003","unstructured":"N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, A. Kaplan, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geopys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4407 (2003).","journal-title":"J. Geopys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00837.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-16-0836.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/os-15-779-2019"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.aef2833","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]],"date-time":"2026-08-24T17:13:54Z","timestamp":1787591634000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aef2833"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"30","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.aef2833"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.aef2833","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-01-07","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-06-17","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-23","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eaef2833"}}