{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T18:55:11Z","timestamp":1790794511082,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"40","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Callahan and Mankin argue that extreme heat, measured by maximum 5-day average temperature, has a precise and economically meaningful effect on subnational gross domestic product per-capita growth. We reexamine this claim and find that the reported precision does not survive methods that respect the data\u2019s spatial and temporal dependence. Country-preserving permutations and postselection correction substantially widen marginal-effect intervals. The estimates are also highly sensitive to influential countries and years, with exclusions sometimes collapsing the effect or reversing its sign. A hierarchical Bayesian model with region-within-country structure and AR(1) year effects yields much larger uncertainty, shrinks the estimated effect by 67 to 90%, and produces credible intervals spanning zero. Last, rolling out-of-sample tests show that adding extreme-climate variables does not improve prediction over models without them. We conclude that the claimed precision is not sustained once dependence, model selection, and influential observations are handled appropriately.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeg1967","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T17:58:26Z","timestamp":1790791106000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Correcting for spatial and temporal dependence in estimating the economic effect of extreme heat"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9032-9613","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Abraham J.","family":"Wyner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6387-7713","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ryan S.","family":"Brill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.add3726"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-025-08751-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-025-09206-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-024-07219-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-resource-100815-095343"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.4.3.66"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15725"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","unstructured":"S. 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