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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In Arctic winter, the boundary layer occupies two preferred radiative states, a cold, clear state and a heat-trapping, cloudy state, that strongly regulate surface energy loss over sea ice. Yet, reanalyses and climate models are often biased toward a single intermediate state. Using a stochastic differential equation framework applied to 27 years of high-resolution observations, we show that the observed bistability is not sustained by multiple deterministic equilibria: The mean restoring tendency is effectively single-well, while background meteorology alone cannot explain rapid transitions. Instead, the two regimes are sustained by sharply localized, state-dependent noise in the transition range. This noise structure emerges when subhourly fluctuations in liquid water path are radiatively amplified by the nonlinear saturation of longwave emissivity. Our results provide a dynamical explanation for this model bias and identify unresolved fast cloud variability as a key source of uncertainty in Arctic winter climate projections.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeh3823","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T17:58:26Z","timestamp":1790791106000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Stochastic cloud fluctuations drive Arctic winter radiative bistability"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2861-0009","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jung-Sub","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA."},{"name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0774-2926","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Graham","family":"Feingold","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc-3-11-2009"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-022-00498-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2009GL040133"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2071"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2004)017<0616:CRFOTA>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3817.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo1332"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/asl.1298"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-016-3383-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS3659.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2012JD017589"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-23-0553.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2024JD041412"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-26-3653-2026"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-013-1964-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-025-64441-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"W. 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