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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Monsoon rainy seasons shape water supply and flood hazard across northern East Asia, but their long-term variability remains poorly understood because few daily rainfall records extend beyond the instrumental era. Here, we reconstruct rainy-season onset, retreat, and duration from a 256-year daily precipitation record for Seoul (1770\u20132025), providing an unusually long view of seasonal monsoon behavior. The reconstruction reveals structured quasi-decadal to multidecadal variability in rainy-season duration, indicating that recent rainy-season lengthening over northern East Asia is consistent with the latest positive excursion of a recurrent multidecadal modulation rather than a purely isolated modern anomaly. Coupled with warming-associated intensification of extreme rainfall, this prolonged-duration phase has elevated the compound-hazard probability, with recent probability peaks exceeding the long-term mean of \u223c25% in Seoul. Exploratory near-term outlooks suggest that rainy-season duration in northern East Asia is likely to remain prolonged toward mid-century, sustaining heightened compound hydroclimatic hazard when seasonally extended overlaps with intensified event-scale rainfall.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeh6716","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T17:58:33Z","timestamp":1791395913000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7433-9002","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuqi","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China."},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Planetary Science and Frontier Technology, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7183-0229","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yong","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Planetary Science and Frontier Technology, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China."},{"name":"School of Space Exploration, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhonghua","family":"Yao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China."},{"name":"Laboratory for Space Research, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8103-1276","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shiling","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China."},{"name":"College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3963-1822","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Feng","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China."},{"name":"College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4075-7414","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wei","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Planetary Science and Frontier Technology, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00703-005-0125-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"B. 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