{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T18:59:17Z","timestamp":1790189957827,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":81,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"39","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP24K01790"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP24K01790"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change is recognized as a key amplifier of human-wildlife conflict, yet the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. Japan\u2019s 2025 bear crisis, which produced 232 casualties, has been widely attributed to rapid population growth, but demographic processes are far too gradual to explain the surge. Using an 18-year dataset across five Tohoku prefectures, we find that it reflects bears responding to a rhythm breakdown of the forest\u2019s food supply. Conflict rises sharply once mast production falls below a threshold. Around 2006, the mast system passed a break point, after which lean years grew more severe and crossed that threshold more often. Conflict is further amplified when the alternative food source, indexed by primary productivity, fails alongside mast, and the 2023\/2025 outbreaks provide a natural experiment separating compound from single-source failure. Beyond the Japanese bear-mast system, our analysis yields a generalized diagnostic framework that considers failing food rhythms, compound shortages, and the thresholds at which animals enter human space.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aej8134","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T17:59:49Z","timestamp":1790186389000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Compound food failure on a deteriorated mast system drives Japan\u2019s bear conflict crisis"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-0520-0805","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hengjun","family":"Xiao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus, Fujisawa, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1063-7198","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zhengwang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MOE Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1972-8619","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yoshiaki","family":"Miyamoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus, Fujisawa, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2372-0206","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tomohiro","family":"Ichinose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus, Fujisawa, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"G. o. J. Ministry of the Environment in Conservation and Management of Wildlife (Ministry of the Environment 2026); https:\/\/www.env.go.jp\/nature\/choju\/effort\/effort12\/effort12.html."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"Y. Inoue in The Japan Times (The Japan Times Ltd. 2025); https:\/\/japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2025\/11\/05\/japan\/gsdf-bear-akita-deployed\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","unstructured":"G. o. J. Cabinet Office \u201cRoadmap for Bear Damage Mitigation\u201d (Cabinet Office Government of Japan 2026); https:\/\/www.cas.go.jp\/jp\/seisaku\/kumahigai_taisaku\/pdf\/kuma_roadmap.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","unstructured":"S. Murakami A. Arranz H. Huang in Reuters (2024); https:\/\/reuters.com\/world\/bear-attacks-are-rising-japan-aging-hunters-are-front-line-2024-12-03\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","first-page":"79","article-title":"The present situation and issues for estimating population size and monitoring population trends of bears in Japan","volume":"51","author":"Yoneda M.","year":"2011","unstructured":"M. Yoneda, T. Mano, The present situation and issues for estimating population size and monitoring population trends of bears in Japan. Mamm. Sci. 51, 79\u201395 (2011).","journal-title":"Mamm. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.886"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1440-1703.2003.00572.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.2891"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2193\/0022-541X(2004)068[0979:RBCIBP]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.21305"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0085122"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40462-019-0166-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10144-008-0104-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12338"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.12465"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2423181122"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/14-0297.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41477-020-0592-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15560"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.70284"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2745.13337"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70781"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0156-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-023-01608-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.140028"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2024.110500"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","unstructured":"G. o. J. Cabinet Secretariat \u201cMeasures Against Bear-Related Damage\u201d (Cabinet Secretariat 2025); https:\/\/www.cas.go.jp\/jp\/seisaku\/kumahigai_taisaku\/dai1\/shiryo1.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","unstructured":"G. o. J. Ministry of the Environment \u201cMethods for Estimating Population Size (Overview of Statistical Methods for Population Estimation)\u201d (Ministry of the Environment 2024); https:\/\/www.env.go.jp\/content\/900518656.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","first-page":"57","article-title":"Management of the Asiatic black bear population in Hyogo Prefecture using data provided from damage control measures","volume":"23","author":"Yokoyama M.","year":"2018","unstructured":"M. Yokoyama, S. Takagi, Management of the Asiatic black bear population in Hyogo Prefecture using data provided from damage control measures. Jpn. J. Conserv. Ecol. 23, 57\u201365 (2018).","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Conserv. Ecol."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","first-page":"131","article-title":"Critique on the estimation of population size of asian black bear based on the \u201cHierarchical Bayesian Method\u201d\u2014Reconsideration from the viewpoint of Relationship with State-Space Model","volume":"58","author":"Yamagami T.","year":"2019","unstructured":"T. Yamagami, Critique on the estimation of population size of asian black bear based on the \u201cHierarchical Bayesian Method\u201d\u2014Reconsideration from the viewpoint of Relationship with State-Space Model. Nihon Fukushi Univ. J. Econ. 58, 131\u2013158 (2019).","journal-title":"Nihon Fukushi Univ. J. Econ."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3106\/ms2022-0034"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","first-page":"31","article-title":"Estimating the success rate of ovulation and early litter loss rate in the Japanese black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) by examining the ovaries and uteri","volume":"59","author":"Yamanaka A.","year":"2011","unstructured":"A. Yamanaka, K. Yamauchi, T. Tsujimoto, T. Mizoguchi, T. Oi, S. Sawada, M. Shimozuru, T. Tsubota, Estimating the success rate of ovulation and early litter loss rate in the Japanese black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) by examining the ovaries and uteri. Jpn. J. Vet. Res. 59, 31\u201339 (2011).","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Vet. Res."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-025-02261-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0223911"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jzo.70022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmammal\/gyac118"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2981\/0909-6396(2006)12[375:ACITDO]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3106\/ms2019-0051"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.22218"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"V. Penteriani G. Bombieri Mar\u00eda del Mar Delgado T. Sharp K. Yamazaki H. S. Bargali N. Dharaiya A. K. Jangid R. K. Sharma B. R. Lamichhane S. Ratnayeke I. Seryodkin H. S. Palei A. Subedi H. Ambarl\u0131 J. M. Fedriani P. J. Garrote K. Jerina I. Kojola M. Krofel P. Mardaraj M. Melletti A. Ordiz P. Pedrini E. Revilla L. F. Russo V. Sahl\u00e9n C. Servheen O.-G. St\u00f8en J. E. Swenson T. Smith in Bears of the World: Ecology Conservation and Management V. Penteriani M. Melletti Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press 2020) pp. 239\u2013249.","DOI":"10.1017\/9781108692571.018"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-025-01578-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11676-021-01429-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11355-023-00576-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su10103676"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2017.0433"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","first-page":"11","article-title":"Human-caused disturbance stimuli as a form of predation risk","volume":"6","author":"Frid A.","year":"2002","unstructured":"A. Frid, L. Dill, Human-caused disturbance stimuli as a form of predation risk. Conserv. Ecol. 6, 11 (2002).","journal-title":"Conserv. Ecol."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13344"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/z90-092"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00395696"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1937162"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0003-3472(81)80128-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.17307"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02856594"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41477-024-01651-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2024.05.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.70092"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11104-024-06859-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10344-013-0720-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00114-020-01698-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_61_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/conphys\/coab029"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2016.10.030"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.1082"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-025-00657-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_65_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-72343-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_66_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2018.05.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_67_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1440-1703.70029"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_68_2","unstructured":"R. N. Paddle Last Tasmanian Tiger: The History and Extinction of the Thylacine (Cambridge Univ. Press 2000)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/z92-290"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_70_2","first-page":"125","article-title":"Corpora albicantia and placental scars in the hokkaido brown bear","volume":"8","author":"Tsubota T.","year":"1990","unstructured":"T. Tsubota, H. Kanagawa, T. Mano, T. Aoi, Corpora albicantia and placental scars in the hokkaido brown bear. Bears Biol. Manag. 8, 125\u2013128 (1990).","journal-title":"Bears Biol. Manag."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_71_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s42991-024-00413-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_72_2","unstructured":"G. o. J. Ministry of the Environment \u201cStatus of bear distribution and human\u2013bear conflict in Japan \u201d in Biodiversity Center Materials Ministry of the Environment (Ministry of the Environment 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_73_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13416979.2023.2207261"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_74_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foreco.2004.10.050"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_75_2","unstructured":"T. R. F. Office \u201cBeech flowering and fruiting survey in the Tohoku Region \u201d in Tohoku Regional Forest Office Forestry Agency Government of Japan (Forestry Agency Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_76_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00936"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_77_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/06-1870.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_78_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/36.701075"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_79_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2017-066"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_80_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S. N. Wood Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R (Chapman and Hall\/CRC ed. 2 2017).","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315370279"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_81_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/73.1.13"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_82_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sigpro.2019.107299"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.aej8134","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T18:00:46Z","timestamp":1790186446000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aej8134"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"references-count":81,"journal-issue":{"issue":"39","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.aej8134"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.aej8134","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-06-17","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-25","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-23","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eaej8134"}}