{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,20]],"date-time":"2026-10-20T07:43:48Z","timestamp":1792482228791,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"5671","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium\n            <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n            circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (\n            <jats:italic>Rhombomys opimus<\/jats:italic>\n            ). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease\u2014invasion and persistence\u2014 operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,29]],"date-time":"2004-04-29T20:08:04Z","timestamp":1083269284000},"page":"736-738","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":157,"title":["Predictive Thresholds for Plague in Kazakhstan"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"304","author":[{"given":"Stephen","family":"Davis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mike","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luc","family":"De Bruyn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir S.","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nikolay L.","family":"Klassovskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sergey B.","family":"Pole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hildegunn","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nils Chr.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Herwig","family":"Leirs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark."},{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium."},{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK."},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium."},{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_1_2_2","first-page":"11","year":"1999","unstructured":"E. Tikhomirov, in Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control (World Health Organization, Geneva, 1999), pp. 11\u201341.","journal-title":"Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"B. T. Grenfell A. P. Dobson Eds. Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1995).","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511629396"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"P. Hudson A. Rizzoli B. Grenfell H. Heesterbeek A. Dobson Eds. The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases (Oxford Univ. 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(JUNK, The Hague, 1975), pp. 549\u2013598.","journal-title":"Rodents in Desert Environments"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_17_2","unstructured":"V. A. Bibikova et al . in materials of the Scientific Conference on Natural Focality and Prophylaxis of Plague Alma-Ata Kazakhstan 1963 pp. 23\u201325."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_18_2","first-page":"166","year":"1985","unstructured":"A. S. Burdelov, V. A. Burdelov, S. V. Dyagilev, K. V. Tsoi, V. I. Cherkashin, in Twelfth Interrepublican Scientific-and-Practical Conference of Plague Control Institutions of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Devoted to Prophylaxis of Plague (Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, 1985), pp. 166\u2013167.","journal-title":"Twelfth Interrepublican Scientific-and-Practical Conference of Plague Control Institutions of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Devoted to Prophylaxis of Plague"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_19_2","unstructured":"Information on materials and methods is available on Science Online."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_20_2","first-page":"102","year":"2002","unstructured":"G. Hesset al., in The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases, P. Hudson, A. Rizzoli, B. Grenfell, H. Heesterbeek, A. Dobson, Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 2002), pp. 102\u2013118.","journal-title":"The Ecology of Wildlife Diseases"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1272"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_22_2","unstructured":"This work was supported by the European Union as projects ISTC K-159 and \u201cSTEPICA\u201d (INCO-COPERNICUS ICA 2-CT2000-10048) as well as the authors' institutes. We wish to thank the many hundreds of Kazakh plague zoologists who collected so many data over all these years. We would also like to thank K.-S. Chan and J. Lindsey for their assistance and advice with our statistical difficulties and M. Pletschette for his stimulating encouragement since the initial stages. H. Dostyk provided excellent working facilities."}],"container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.1095854","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,10]],"date-time":"2024-01-10T03:35:49Z","timestamp":1704857749000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1095854"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,30]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5671","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,30]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.1095854"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1095854","relation":{},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,30]]}}}