{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T09:29:45Z","timestamp":1791106185617,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"5853","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,11,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In the time between speciation and extinction, a species' ecological and biogeographic footprint\u2014its occupancy\u2014will vary in response to macroecological drivers and historical contingencies. Despite their importance for understanding macroecological processes, general patterns of long-term species occupancy remain largely unknown. We documented the occupancy histories of Cenozoic marine mollusks from New Zealand. For both genera and species, these show a distinct pattern of increase to relatively short-lived peak occupancy at mid-duration, followed by a decline toward extinction. Thus, species at greatest risk for extinction are those that have already been in decline for a substantial period of time. This pattern of protracted rise and fall stands in contrast to that of incumbency, insofar as species show no general tendency to stay near maximal occupancy once established.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1146303","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,11,16]],"date-time":"2007-11-16T00:33:10Z","timestamp":1195173190000},"page":"1131-1134","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":150,"title":["Rise and Fall of Species Occupancy in Cenozoic Fossil Mollusks"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"318","author":[{"given":"Michael","family":"Foote","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James S.","family":"Crampton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alan G.","family":"Beu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bruce A.","family":"Marshall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roger A.","family":"Cooper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Phillip A.","family":"Maxwell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Iain","family":"Matcham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA."},{"name":"GNS Science, Post Office Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand."},{"name":"Museum of New Zealand Ta Papa Tongarewa, Post Office Box 467, Wellington, New Zealand."},{"name":"257 Otipua Road, Timaru, South Canterbury, New Zealand."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"K. J. Gaston T. M. Blackburn Pattern and Process in Macroecology (Blackwell Science Oxford 2000).","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470999592"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"K. J. Gaston The Structure and Dynamics of Geographic Ranges (Oxford Univ. Press Oxford 2003).","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198526407.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"517","DOI":"10.1666\/06084.1","volume":"33","year":"2007","unstructured":"M. Foote, Paleobiology33, 517 (2007).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1473","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2007.01709.x","volume":"34","year":"2007","unstructured":"W. Kiessling, M. Aberhan, J. Biogeogr.34, 1473 (2007).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"410","DOI":"10.1017\/S0094837300019813","volume":"23","year":"1997","unstructured":"A. I. Miller, Paleobiology23, 410 (1997).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.238.4825.360"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1085075"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1666\/06014.1","volume":"32","year":"2006","unstructured":"J. S. Cramptonet al., Paleobiology32, 509 (2006).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.2110\/palo.2004.p04-90","volume":"21","year":"2006","unstructured":"J. S. Cramptonet al., Palaios21, 86 (2006).","journal-title":"Palaios"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"643","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2004.03860.x","volume":"27","year":"2004","unstructured":"M. T. Frost, M. J. Attrill, A. A. Rowden, A. Foggo, Ecography27, 643 (2004).","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"614","DOI":"10.1086\/424967","volume":"164","year":"2004","unstructured":"J. Jernvall, M. Fortelius, Am. Nat.164, 614 (2004).","journal-title":"Am. Nat."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1426","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2006.01167.x","volume":"75","year":"2006","unstructured":"T. M. Blackburn, P. Cassey, K. J. Gaston, J. Anim. Ecol.75, 1426 (2006).","journal-title":"J. Anim. Ecol."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1771","DOI":"10.1890\/04-0883","volume":"86","year":"2005","unstructured":"C. Mora, D. R. Robertson, Ecology86, 1771 (2005).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","unstructured":"The geological durations of species in our analysis from the base of the stage of first appearance to the top of the stage of last appearance vary from 2.0 to 32 My with a median [\u00b11 SE (SOM)] of 8.7 \u00b1 0.4 My ( 27 ). Median durations are 9.3 \u00b1 0.4 My for the shaded species in Fig. 1 and 8.3 \u00b1 0.4 for the remaining species. The median time taken to attain peak occupancy measured from the base of the stage of first appearance to the midpoint of the peak stage is 4.0 \u00b1 0.5 My for all species 3.9 \u00b1 0.5 My for the shaded species in Fig. 1 and 4.6 \u00b1 0.6 My for the remaining species. The median time between the midpoint of the peak stage and the top of the stage of last appearance is 4.5 \u00b1 0.3 My for all species 4.6 \u00b1 0.4 My for the shaded species in Fig. 1 and 4.5 \u00b1 0.6 My for the remaining species. The subsets of species are statistically indistinguishable from each other in median duration time from first appearance to peak occupancy and time from peak occupancy to last appearance (SOM). Nor are there any significant differences between the median time from first appearance to peak and the median time from peak to last appearance (SOM)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","first-page":"2745","volume":"274","year":"2007","unstructured":"L. H. Liow, N. C. Stenseth, Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B274, 2745 (2007).","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","first-page":"181","volume":"8","year":"2006","unstructured":"P. Raia, C. Meloro, A. Loy, C. Barbera, Evol. Ecol. Res.8, 181 (2006).","journal-title":"Evol. Ecol. Res."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"192","DOI":"10.1666\/0094-8373(2005)031[0192:MEAM]2.0.CO;2","volume":"31","year":"2005","unstructured":"D. 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Johnson, Paleobiology26 (suppl. 4), 221 (2000).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","first-page":"194","volume":"26","year":"2000","unstructured":"S. T. Jackson, J. T. Overpeck, Paleobiology26 (suppl. 4), 194 (2000).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"202","DOI":"10.1017\/S0094837300010563","volume":"17","year":"1991","unstructured":"M. L. Rosenzweig, R. D. McCord, Paleobiology17, 202 (1991).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1367","DOI":"10.2307\/2265534","volume":"77","year":"1996","unstructured":"D. Jablonski, J. J. Sepkoski Jr., Ecology77, 1367 (1996).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","first-page":"15","volume":"26","year":"2000","unstructured":"D. Jablonski, Paleobiology26 (suppl. 4), 15 (2000).","journal-title":"Paleobiology"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","first-page":"1","volume":"22","year":"2004","unstructured":"R. A. Cooper, Inst. Geol. Nucl. Sci. Monogr.22, 1 (2004).","journal-title":"Inst. Geol. Nucl. Sci. Monogr."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","unstructured":"We acknowledge the use of information contained in the New Zealand Fossil Record File. C. M. Jones assisted with data preparation. We are grateful for discussions with A. P. Allen C. K. Boyce J. H. Brown P. G. Harnik G. Hunt D. Jablonski W. Kiessling L. H. Liow M. A. McPeek A. I. Miller M. Novak S. E. Peters F. M. Richter R. C. Terry S. C. Wang and M. Webster. This work was supported by the Marsden Fund (contract GNS0404) and NSF (grant EAR 0105609). M.F. is grateful for the use of facilities at GNS Science where the majority of this work was carried out."}],"container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.1146303","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,10]],"date-time":"2024-01-10T08:07:47Z","timestamp":1704874067000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1146303"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,11,16]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5853","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,11,16]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.1146303"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1146303","relation":{},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,11,16]]}}}