{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T03:16:33Z","timestamp":1791515793643,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"6799","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001659","name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["491578970"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["491578970"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001659","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Paris School of Economics","award":["ANR-17-EURE-0001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ANR-17-EURE-0001"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national humanitarian donor. The social and political effects of abrupt aid withdrawal are poorly understood, especially in fragile states where relief is a key safety net. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the shutdown\u2019s impact on subnational conflict across Africa. Leveraging historical exposure to USAID programs, we show that conflict increased sharply after the shutdown in areas that previously received the most support. The increase spanned incidence and severity, including armed clashes, protests, and riots. The effects appeared immediately and persisted for months. Inclusive local institutions substantially mitigated these harms, underscoring vulnerability under weak governance and the capacity of institutions to buffer humanitarian and economic shocks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aed6802","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T18:00:41Z","timestamp":1778781641000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"392","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2660-4550","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"D.","family":"Rohner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Geneva Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland."},{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland."},{"name":"Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), London, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2110-7822","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"U.","family":"Sunde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), London, UK."},{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2396-1248","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"O.","family":"Vanden Eynde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), London, UK."},{"name":"Paris School of Economics, Paris, France."},{"name":"Humanities and Social Sciences, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5859-2681","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"A. L.","family":"Wright","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harris School of Public Policy, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-4507-7734","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J.-R.","family":"Zeng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Paris School of Economics, Paris, France."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"J. F. Kennedy \u201cMessage to the Congress on foreign aid March 22 1961 \u201d in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: John F. Kennedy (1961) (US Government Printing Office 1962) section 90; https:\/\/www.govinfo.gov\/app\/details\/PPP-1961-book1."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"C. 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