{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T19:02:12Z","timestamp":1789671732825,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"6817","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In July, the prediction market platform Kalshi and data company AppliedXL began a pilot market listing binary, yes-or-no contracts on whether named late-stage clinical trials meet their preregistered primary end points. Kalshi lists contracts only after trial enrollment closes, reasoning that a visible price\u2014in effect the market\u2019s odds that the trial succeeds\u2014could sway recruitment. But closing enrollment does not end an experiment. Traders can buy and sell contracts while trial participants still attend visits, staff still measure outcomes, and interim results remain confidential. The line belongs at the end of the experiment, not of enrollment: No public contract on a trial\u2019s efficacy or safety result should trade while the trial is ongoing and before the result is public.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.ael8642","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T14:00:16Z","timestamp":1789135216000},"page":"1171-1171","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Ban bets on unfinished clinical trials"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"393","author":[{"given":"Y. Tony","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Y. Tony Yang is an endowed professor at the Center for Health Policy and Media Engagement, George Washington University School of Nursing, and Department of Health Policy and Management, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aaron S.","family":"Kesselheim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aaron S. Kesselheim is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and a faculty member in the Program On Regulation, Therapeutics, And Law, Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women\u2019s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.ael8642","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T18:03:11Z","timestamp":1789668191000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.ael8642"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6817","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.ael8642"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.ael8642","relation":{},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-09-11","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}