{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T10:45:10Z","timestamp":1774262710923,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"5752","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,11,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, \u201csurplus land\u201d for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115233","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,10,28]],"date-time":"2005-10-28T00:41:01Z","timestamp":1130460061000},"page":"1333-1337","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1317,"title":["Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"310","author":[{"given":"Dagmar","family":"Schro\u0308ter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Wolfgang","family":"Cramer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Rik","family":"Leemans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"I. Colin","family":"Prentice","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Miguel B.","family":"Arau\u0301jo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Nigel W.","family":"Arnell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Alberte","family":"Bondeau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Harald","family":"Bugmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Timothy R.","family":"Carter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Carlos A.","family":"Gracia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Anne C.","family":"de la Vega-Leinert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Markus","family":"Erhard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Frank","family":"Ewert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Margaret","family":"Glendining","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Joanna I.","family":"House","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Susanna","family":"Kankaanpa\u0308a\u0308","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Richard J. T.","family":"Klein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Sandra","family":"Lavorel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Marcus","family":"Lindner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Marc J.","family":"Metzger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Jeannette","family":"Meyer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Timothy D.","family":"Mitchell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Isabelle","family":"Reginster","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Rounsevell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Santi","family":"Sabate\u0301","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Sitch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Jo","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Pete","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Martin T.","family":"Sykes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Kirsten","family":"Thonicke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Wilfried","family":"Thuiller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Gill","family":"Tuck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"So\u0308nke","family":"Zaehle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]},{"given":"Ba\u0308rbel","family":"Zierl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany."},{"name":"Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA."},{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands."},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK."},{"name":"School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK."}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_1_2_2","unstructured":"Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment (Island Press Washington DC 2003)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095780"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_4_2","unstructured":"W. V. Reid et al. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report (Island Press Washington 2005)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_5_2","unstructured":"Materials and methods are available as supporting material on Science Online."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_6_2","unstructured":"The periods represent 30-year averages: baseline 1990 (mean over 1961 to 1990) 2020 (mean over 1991 to 2020) 2050 (mean over 2021 to 2050) and 2080 (mean over 2051 to 2080)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_7_2","unstructured":"The economic A scenarios represent a world focused on material consumption whereas the environmental B scenarios focus on sustainability equity and environment. The second dimension distinguishes globalization (dimension 1) from regionalization (dimension 2)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_8_2","unstructured":"N. Nakicenovic R. Swart Eds. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2000)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2004.12.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_10_2","unstructured":"We refer to extensification as the transition of a land-use type with high intensity of use to a lower intensity (e.g. improved grassland to seminatural cover)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2004.12.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_12_2","unstructured":"\u201cEnergy for the future: Renewable sources of energy\u2014White paper for a community strategy and action plan\u201d European Communities Tech. Report No. 599 (1997)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_13_2","unstructured":"United Nations Environment Programme \u201cGEO-3: Global environmental outlook report 3\u201d (UNEP United Nations Environment Programme Earthscan London 2002)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1477-8947.1989.tb00348.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_16_2","unstructured":"In addition to increasing the number of people served with water in a region tourists' water consumption has been shown to be far in excess of that of local residents ( 30 )."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_17_2","first-page":"WO2028","volume":"41","year":"2005","unstructured":"B. Zierl, H. Bugmann, Water Resour. Res.41, WO2028 (2005).","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1659\/0276-4741(2001)021[0335:TVOTSI]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/04-0922"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.287.5459.1770"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0409902102"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/416389a"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_24_2","first-page":"241","volume":"5","year":"1995","unstructured":"M. Gottfried, H. Pauli, K. Reiter, G. Grabherr, Diversity Distrib.5, 241 (1995).","journal-title":"Diversity Distrib."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1111772"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2000GB001298"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2486.2003.00570.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03138"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03226"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/437205a"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_31_2","unstructured":"World Tourism Organization First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism Djerba Tunisia 9 to 11 April 2003."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_32_2","unstructured":"This work was funded by the EU-project ATEAM (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Assessment and Modelling EVK2-2000-00075). We gratefully acknowledge the support of our EU scientific officer D. Peter and our external observers P. Leadley D. Ojima and R. Muetzelfeldt. We thank M. Welp for advice on stakeholder dialogue and our stakeholders for their voluntary collaboration (a full list is available in the supporting online material). Part of this work was carried out while D.S. was hosted by the Science Environment and Development Group at the Center for International Development Harvard University."}],"container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.1115233","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,10]],"date-time":"2024-01-10T02:09:09Z","timestamp":1704852549000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1115233"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,11,25]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5752","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,11,25]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.1115233"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1115233","relation":{},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,11,25]]}}}