{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T12:21:25Z","timestamp":1777983685029,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"6010","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010,12,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Assessing Biodiversity Declines<\/jats:title>\n          <jats:p>\n            Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection.\n            <jats:bold>\n              Pereira\n              <jats:italic>et al.<\/jats:italic>\n            <\/jats:bold>\n            (p.\n            <jats:related-article xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"doi\" page=\"1496\" related-article-type=\"in-this-issue\" vol=\"330\" xlink:href=\"10.1126\/science.1196624\">1496<\/jats:related-article>\n            , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation.\n            <jats:bold>\n              Hoffmann\n              <jats:italic>et al.<\/jats:italic>\n            <\/jats:bold>\n            (p.\n            <jats:related-article xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"doi\" page=\"1503\" related-article-type=\"in-this-issue\" vol=\"330\" xlink:href=\"10.1126\/science.1194442\">1503<\/jats:related-article>\n            , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1196624","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,10,27]],"date-time":"2010-10-27T03:42:14Z","timestamp":1288150934000},"page":"1496-1501","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1600,"title":["Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"330","author":[{"given":"Henrique M.","family":"Pereira","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Paul W.","family":"Leadley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire \u00c9cologie, Syst\u00e9matique et \u00c9volution, UMR 8079 CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Sud 11, F-91405 Orsay, France."}]},{"given":"V\u00e2nia","family":"Proen\u00e7a","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Rob","family":"Alkemade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Post Office Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands."}]},{"given":"J\u00f6rn P. W.","family":"Scharlemann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK."}]},{"given":"Juan F.","family":"Fernandez-Manjarr\u00e9s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire \u00c9cologie, Syst\u00e9matique et \u00c9volution, UMR 8079 CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Paris-Sud 11, F-91405 Orsay, France."}]},{"given":"Miguel B.","family":"Ara\u00fajo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biolog\u00eda Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas, calle Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 28006 Madrid, Spain."},{"name":"C\u00e1tedra Rui Nabeiro\u2013Biodiversidade, Centro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o em Biodiversidade e Recursos Gen\u00e9ticos, Universidade de \u00c9vora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 \u00c9vora, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Patricia","family":"Balvanera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Universidad Nacional Aut\u00f3noma de M\u00e9xico, Apartado Postal 27-3, Sta. Maria de Guido, C.P. 58090, Morelia, Michoac\u00e1n, M\u00e9xico."}]},{"given":"Reinette","family":"Biggs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 10691."}]},{"given":"William W. L.","family":"Cheung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK."}]},{"given":"Louise","family":"Chini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA."}]},{"given":"H. David","family":"Cooper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, World Trade Center, 413 St. Jacques Street, Suite 800, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H2Y IN9."}]},{"given":"Eric L.","family":"Gilman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Hawaii Pacific University, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA."}]},{"given":"Sylvie","family":"Gu\u00e9nette","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fisheries Centre, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory (AERL), 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4."}]},{"given":"George C.","family":"Hurtt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA."},{"name":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA."}]},{"given":"Henry P.","family":"Huntington","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Pew Environment Group, 23834 The Clearing Drive, Eagle River, AK 99577, USA."}]},{"given":"Georgina M.","family":"Mace","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK."}]},{"given":"Thierry","family":"Oberdorff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire de Biologie des Organismes et Ecosyst\u00e8mes Aquatiques, UMR IRD 207 Mus\u00e9um National d\u2019Histoire Naturelle, 43 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France."}]},{"given":"Carmen","family":"Revenga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22203, USA."}]},{"given":"Patr\u00edcia","family":"Rodrigues","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Robert J.","family":"Scholes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSIR Natural Resources and Environment, Post Office Box 395, Pretoria 0001, South Africa."}]},{"given":"Ussif Rashid","family":"Sumaila","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fisheries Centre, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory (AERL), 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4."}]},{"given":"Matt","family":"Walpole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK."}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"J. 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