{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T19:55:19Z","timestamp":1787860519696,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"4157","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1974,9,27]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgments under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgments and decisions in situations of uncertainty.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,5]],"date-time":"2006-10-05T11:10:48Z","timestamp":1160046648000},"page":"1124-1131","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24013,"title":["Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"185","author":[{"given":"Amos","family":"Tversky","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Kahneman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"478","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(71)90005-9","volume":"35","year":"1971","unstructured":"ALPERT, M, ACTA PSYCHOL 35: 478 (1971).","journal-title":"ACTA PSYCHOL"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90061-5","volume":"9","year":"1973","unstructured":"BARHILLEL, M, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE 9: 396 (1973).","journal-title":"ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1037\/h0024670","volume":"72","year":"1967","unstructured":"CHAPMAN, L.J., GENESIS OF POPULAR BUT ERRONEOUS PSYCHO-DIAGNOSTIC OBSERVATIONS, JOURNAL OF ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY 72: 193 (1967).","journal-title":"JOURNAL OF ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1037\/h0027592","volume":"74","year":"1969","unstructured":"CHAPMAN, L.J., ILLUSORY CORRELATION AS AN OBSTACLE TO USE OF VALID PSYCHODIAGNOSTIC SIGNS, JOURNAL OF ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY 74: 271 (1969).","journal-title":"JOURNAL OF ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1972.tb02082.x","volume":"63","year":"1972","unstructured":"COHEN, J, CONFIRMATION OF INERTIAL-PSI EFFECT IN SEQUENTIAL CHOICE AND DECISION, BRITISH JOURNAL OF PSYCHOLOGY 63: 41 (1972).","journal-title":"BRITISH JOURNAL OF PSYCHOLOGY"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","unstructured":"DEFINETTI B INT ENCYCLOPEDIA SOC 12 (1968)."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","unstructured":"EDWARDS W FORMAL REPRESENTATIO (1968)."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03198068","volume":"1","year":"1973","unstructured":"GALBRAITH, R.C., PERCEIVED FREQUENCY OF CONCRETE AND ABSTRACT WORDS, MEMORY & COGNITION 1: 56 (1973).","journal-title":"MEMORY & COGNITION"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(72)90016-3","volume":"3","year":"1972","unstructured":"KAHNEMAN, D, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY - JUDGMENT OF REPRESENTATIVENESS, COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY 3: 430 (1972).","journal-title":"COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034747","volume":"80","year":"1973","unstructured":"KAHNEMAN, D, PSYCHOLOGY OF PREDICTION, PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW 80: 237 (1973).","journal-title":"PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","unstructured":"SAVAGE L.J. FOUNDATIONS STATISTI (1954)."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"649","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(71)90033-X","volume":"6","year":"1971","unstructured":"SLOVIC, P, COMPARISON OF BAYESIAN AND REGRESSION APPROACHES TO STUDY OF INFORMATION PROCESSING IN JUDGMENT, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE 6: 649 (1971).","journal-title":"ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(73)90033-9","volume":"5","year":"1973","unstructured":"TVERSKY, A, AVAILABILITY - HEURISTIC FOR JUDGING FREQUENCY AND PROBABILITY, COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY 5: 207 (1973).","journal-title":"COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031322","volume":"76","year":"1971","unstructured":"TVERSKY, A, BELIEF IN LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS, PSYCHOLOGICAL BULLETIN 76: 105 (1971).","journal-title":"PSYCHOLOGICAL BULLETIN"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"776","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1967.10500894","volume":"62","year":"1967","unstructured":"WINKLER, R.L., ASSESSMENT OF PRIOR DISTRIBUTIONS IN BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 62: 776 (1967).","journal-title":"JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION"}],"container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,11]],"date-time":"2024-01-11T16:28:15Z","timestamp":1704990495000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124"}},"subtitle":["Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty."],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1974,9,27]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4157","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1974,9,27]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124","relation":{},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1974,9,27]]}}}