{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T23:15:57Z","timestamp":1789168557715,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":91,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Science"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Pacific El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Gal\u00e1pagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Ni\u00f1o events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Gal\u00e1pagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/science.ady2660","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T18:00:24Z","timestamp":1787853624000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord"],"prefix":"10.1126","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3389-7809","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J. E.","family":"Cole","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6181-1259","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"D. M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8347-3089","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"K. A.","family":"Dyez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. J.","family":"Tripp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1819-3325","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"A. W.","family":"Tudhope","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8016-865X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"M.","family":"Lofverstrom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1223-8521","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"S.","family":"Stevenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bren School of Environmental Sciences and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. M.","family":"Okun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8488-5058","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"A. E.","family":"Lawman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Studies and Science Program, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, CO, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. L.","family":"Conroy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Science and Environmental Change, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3843-9313","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J. T.","family":"Overpeck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8969-7486","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"G.","family":"Jimenez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Moody\u2019s Risk Management Services."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7027-5881","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"R. L.","family":"Edwards","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119548164.ch3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119548164.ch19"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119548164.ch16"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-021-00199-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo868"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aav4236"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","volume-title":"Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Lee J. Y.","year":"2021","unstructured":"J. Y. Lee., Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, V. Masson-Delmotte., Eds. (Cambridge University Press, 2021)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119548164.ch5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2009GL038710"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2008JCLI2309.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0776-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL043321"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1911130116"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-36053-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2008JCLI2624.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119548164.ch4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-017-3702-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-017-3573-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-34880-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-019-0353-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.260.5115.1790"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35039597"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1228246"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL083906"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2011JCLI3852.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019PA003742"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-023-00427-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/esd-14-413-2023"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-33930-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","first-page":"3047","article-title":"Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Nino events in CMIP6 global warming simulations","volume":"61","author":"Heede U. K.","year":"2023","unstructured":"U. K. Heede, A. V. Fedorov, Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Nino events in CMIP6 global warming simulations. Clim. Dyn. 61, 3047\u20133060 (2023).","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-017-7499-4_19"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL075323"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/93PA03501"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021PA004323"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL102074"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-10-4005-2017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-14-00233.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-5-185-2012"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023GL104454"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2084-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1936"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00511.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aac9937"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1177303"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL096153"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL094036"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090640"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp-10-825-2014"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2020.106530"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/1998GL900145"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp-11-1347-2015"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00338.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/palo.20037"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/faf.12694"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-020-0068-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aan8048"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12580"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2007JCLI1824.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2002JD002670"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_61_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-019-0400-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.2297"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL062997"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020PA004051"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_65_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-326X(94)90437-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_66_2","first-page":"6","article-title":"Rapid recovery of a coral reef at Darwin Island, Galapagos Islands","volume":"66","author":"Glynn P. W.","year":"2009","unstructured":"P. W. Glynn, B. Riegl, A. M. S. Correa, I. B. Baums, Rapid recovery of a coral reef at Darwin Island, Galapagos Islands. Galapagos Res. 66, 6\u201313 (2009).","journal-title":"Galapagos Res."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_67_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12594-011-0044-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_68_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/96PA01023"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1119\/1.1632486"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_70_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(1997)010<2147:AMTETS>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_71_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-16-0836.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_72_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-4049-2016"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_73_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevC.4.1889"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_74_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2013.04.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_75_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020PA003848"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_76_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01779"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_77_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2009GL040270"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_78_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aax2000"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_79_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2001GL012919"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_80_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2009PA001788"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_81_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/29424"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_82_2","first-page":"34","article-title":"An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies","volume":"28","author":"Wu T. W.","year":"2014","unstructured":"T. W. Wu., An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies. J. Meteorol. Res. 28, 34\u201356 (2014).","journal-title":"J. Meteorol. Res."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_83_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00326.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_84_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3612.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_85_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-012-1411-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_86_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-6-819-2013"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_87_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp-6-723-2010"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_88_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.2012-A02"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_89_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp-21-161-2025"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_90_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-13-2197-2020"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_91_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-3241-2019"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_92_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.2019-051"}],"container-title":["Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/science.ady2660","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T18:00:26Z","timestamp":1787853626000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.ady2660"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"references-count":91,"alternative-id":["10.1126\/science.ady2660"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.ady2660","relation":{"is-supplemented-by":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1126\/science.zwax4q6","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"ISSN":["0036-8075","1095-9203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0036-8075","type":"print"},{"value":"1095-9203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-04-16","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-12","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-27","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eady2660"}}