{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T01:34:18Z","timestamp":1787016858834,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"American Society for Microbiology","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,18]],"date-time":"2015-06-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1434585600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.asm.org\/non-commercial-tdm-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.asm.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Microbiol Spectr"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,18]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, which is capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. A number of mathematical models have been developed to help in understanding the dynamics of cholera outbreaks and for use as a tool in planning interventions, including vaccination campaigns. We have explored the utility of models in assessing the spread of cholera in the recent epidemics in Zimbabwe and Haiti. In both instances, a mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number \u211b\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    , and the partial reproductive numbers reflecting potential differences in environmental-to-human versus human-to-human transmission were quantified. In Zimbabwe, estimated \u211b\n                    <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n                    for the epidemic using aggregated data at the national level was 1.15; in Haiti, it was 1.55. However, when calculated at a provincial\/departmental level, estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, with a range of 1.11 to 2.72 in Zimbabwe and 1.06 to 2.63 in Haiti. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from region to region, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. They also highlight the potential utility of these types of models in guiding development of public health intervention strategies.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1128\/microbiolspec.ve-0011-2014","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,26]],"date-time":"2015-06-26T08:01:30Z","timestamp":1435305690000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1128\/asmj-crossmark-policy-page","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Modeling the Epidemiology of Cholera to Prevent Disease Transmission in Developing Countries"],"prefix":"10.1128","volume":"3","author":[{"given":"Zindoga","family":"Mukandavire","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"suffix":"Jr","given":"J. Glenn","family":"Morris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"235","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"Pollitzer R. 1959. Cholera . World Health Organization Geneva Switzerland."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"WHO. 2008. Outbreak news. Cholera Zimbabwe. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 83: 449\u2013450. [PubMed]"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Koenig R. 2009. Public health international groups battle cholera in Zimbabwe. Science 323: 860\u2013861. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1126\/science.323.5916.860"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2011. Haiti cholera outbreak: cholera confirmed in Haiti October 21 2010 . http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/haiticholera\/situation\/. Accessed February 10 2011."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mukandavire Z Liao S Wang J Gaff H Smith DL Morris JG Jr. 2011. Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008\u20132009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108: 8767\u20138772. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1019712108"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mukandavire Z Smith DL Morris JG Jr. 2013. Cholera in Haiti: reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates. Sci Rep 3: 997. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1038\/srep00997"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Merrell DS Butler SM Qadri F Dolganov NA Alam A Cohen MB Calderwood SB Schoolnik GK Camilli A. 2002. Host-induced epidemic spread of the cholera bacterium. Nature 417: 642\u2013645. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1038\/nature00778"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hartley DM Morris JG Jr Smith DL. 2006. Hyperinfectivity: A critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics? PLoS Med 3: e7. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030007"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nelson EJ Harris JB Morris JG Jr Calderwood SB Camilli A. 2009. Cholera transmission: the host pathogen and bacteriophage dynamic. Nat Rev Microbiol 7: 693\u2013702. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro2204"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Morris JG Jr. 2011. Cholera: modern pandemic disease of ancient lineage. Emerg Infect Dis 17: 2099\u20132104. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1711.111109"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Franco AA Fix AD Prada A Paredes E Palomino JC Wright AC Johnson JA McCarter R Guerra H Morris JG Jr. 1997. Cholera in Lima Peru correlates with prior isolation of Vibrio cholerae from the environment. Am J Epidemiol 146: 1067\u20131075. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009235"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Huq A Sack RB Nizam A Longini IM Nair GB Ali A Morris JG Jr Khan MN Siddique AK Yunus M Albert MJ Sack DA Colwell RR. 2005. Critical factors influencing the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in the environment in Bangladesh. Appl Environ Microbiol 71: 4645\u20134654. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.71.8.4645-4654.2005"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rodo X Pascual M Fuchs G Faruque AS. 2002. ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99: 12901\u201312906. [PubMed][CrossRef]","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.182203999"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nelson EJ Chowdhury A Flynn J Schild S Bourassa L Shao Y LaRocque RC Calderwood SB Qadri F Camilli A. 2008. 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