{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,11]],"date-time":"2026-11-11T23:53:52Z","timestamp":1794441232233,"version":"4.9.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"BMJ","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]],"date-time":"2023-10-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1696377600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000923","name":"Australian Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000923","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Time series study.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Participants<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Main outcome measures<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]],"date-time":"2023-10-04T20:20:14Z","timestamp":1696450814000},"page":"e075081","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":80,"title":["Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"383","author":[{"given":"Zhengyu","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenzhong","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joanne E","family":"McKenzie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rongbin","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pei","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tingting","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bo","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antonio","family":"Gasparrini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK"},{"name":"Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Armstrong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shilu","family":"Tong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia"},{"name":"School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China"},{"name":"Shanghai Children\u2019s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Lavigne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada"},{"name":"Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joana","family":"Madureira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain"},{"name":"EPIUnit - Instituto de Saude Publica, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Laborat\u00f3rio para a Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o Integrativa e Translacional em Sa\u00fade Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Kysel\u00fd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic"},{"name":"Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1766-6592","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuming","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9021-8470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shanshan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.06.197"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-30727-4"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-03695-w"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000001182"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.23907\/2017.023"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2012.06.003"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.19460"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciy227"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/dmp.2014.111"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31823ac606"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.3.5720.454"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-069X-10-11"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)62114-0"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(21)00081-4"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyz014"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-13-4349-2021"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.17","unstructured":"Brakenridge GR. Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events. Dartmouth Flood Observatory. https:\/\/floodobservatory.colorado.edu\/ (accessed 18 Jul 2022)."},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020MS002221"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667.2012.745082"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(21)00200-X"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaa169"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyt092"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12940-022-00853-z"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.k4306"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.1682"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.151108"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5963"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)62114-0"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5471"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2288-14-55"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.12"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrn3475"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-069X-10-11"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2020.106136"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.151108"},{"key":"2025110102204258000_383.oct04_9.e075081.36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14034940600979171"}],"container-title":["BMJ"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/data.bmj.org\/tdm\/10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]],"date-time":"2025-11-01T09:20:49Z","timestamp":1761988849000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]},"references-count":36,"alternative-id":["10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmj-2023-075081","relation":{},"ISSN":["1756-1833"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1756-1833","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]}}}