{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T16:01:38Z","timestamp":1789660898328,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"6950","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[1994,7,30]],"date-time":"1994-07-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":775526400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/company\/legal-information\/terms-conditions\/legal-information\/tdm-licencepolicy"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMJ"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[1994,5,20]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1994,7,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Objective<\/jats:bold>\n                    : To estimate the probability of remaining free of AIDS for up to 25 years after infection with HIV by extrapolation of changes in CD4 lymphocyte count.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Design<\/jats:bold>\n                    : Cohort study of subjects followed from time of HIV seroconversion until 1 January 1993. Creation of model by using extrapolated linear20regression slopes of CD4 count to predict development of AIDS after 1993.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Setting<\/jats:bold>\n                    : Regional haemophilia centre in teaching hospital.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Subjects<\/jats:bold>\n                    : 111 men with haemophilia infected with HIV during 1979-85. Median length of follow up 10.1 years, median number of CD4 counts 17. The model was not fitted for three men because only one CD4 measurement was available.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Main outcome measures<\/jats:bold>\n                    : Development of AIDS.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Interventions<\/jats:bold>\n                    : From 1989 prophylaxis against candida and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and antiretroviral drugs when CD4 count fell below 200x10\n                    <jats:sup>6<\/jats:sup>\n                    \/l.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Results<\/jats:bold>\n                    : 44 men developed AIDS up to 1 January 1993. When AIDS was defined as a CD4 count of 50x10\n                    <jats:sup>6<\/jats:sup>\n                    \/l the model predicted that 25% (95% confidence interval 16% to 34%) would survive for 20 years after seroconversion and 18% (11% to 25%) for 25 years. Changing the CD4 count at which AIDS was assumed to occur did not alter the results. Younger patients had a higher chance of 20 year survival than older patients (32% (12% to 52%) for those aged &lt;15, 26% (14% to 38%) for those aged 15-29, and 15% (0% to 31%) for those aged &gt;=30).\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Conclusions<\/jats:bold>\n                    : These results suggest that even with currently available treatment up to a quarter of patients with HIV infection will survive for 20 years after seroconversion without developing AIDS.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.309.6950.309","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,27]],"date-time":"2011-10-27T19:29:41Z","timestamp":1319743781000},"page":"309-313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":54,"title":["Use of CD4 lymphocyte count to predict long term survival free of AIDS after HIV infection"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"309","author":[{"given":"A 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CD4+ counts before and after switching to monoclonal high-purity factor VIII concentrate in HIV-infected haemophilic patients. Thrombosis and Haemostasis (in press)."},{"key":"2025122311113047000_309.6950.309.25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0140-6736(93)91706-R"},{"key":"2025122311113047000_309.6950.309.26","unstructured":"Cox DR Oakes D . Analysis of survival data. London: Chapman and Hall, 1984."},{"key":"2025122311113047000_309.6950.309.27","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control . 1993 Revised classification system for HIV infection and expanded surveillance case definition for AIDS among adolescents and adults. MMWR 1992;41. 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