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However, future projections of dengue infections in a warming world remain unclear. We used the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic>\n                    mosquitoes and dengue records from 1960 to 2019 to comprehensively assess the effects of climate change and socioeconomic conditions on the distribution of mosquitoes and the global dengue incidence rate. The SVM and ANN models were applied to project the global future incidence rate and infections during 2021\u20132040, 2041\u20132060 and 2061\u20132080 under various climate change and socioeconomic conditions in a 5\u2009km spatial resolution. We found a geographical distribution expansion of\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic>\n                    mosquitoes and dengue in future years, especially in higher latitudes such as North America and Europe. It was estimated that 77 (confidence interval: 40 to 198)\u2009million yearly global infections will occur during 2041\u20132060 under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP2-4.5, a 57% increase of 49 (26\u2212127) million compared with 2000\u20132019. The rise in annual infections is primarily attributed to the growing incidence rates driven by rising temperatures and the enhanced suitability of\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    , and an expanding human population. Our high-resolution projection provides support to local control measures to minimise health impacts from dengue. Specifically, the\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic>\n                    mosquito control programmes such as eliminating the\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    breeding sites are recommended in Africa and South Asia, where dengue is particularly severe in all climate change and socioeconomic conditions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2023-014688","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,7]],"date-time":"2025-05-07T07:10:15Z","timestamp":1746601815000},"page":"e014688","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Mosquito and global dengue cases in a warming world"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Jie","family":"Hu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin P","family":"Horton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tsin Wen","family":"Yeo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lee Kong Chian School of Medicin, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joseph J Y","family":"Sung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lee Kong Chian School of Medicin, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2826-0950","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yim Hung Lam","family":"Steve","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"},{"name":"Lee Kong Chian School of Medicin, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1007\/s40121-021-00470-2","article-title":"The Global Trends and Regional Differences in Incidence of Dengue Infection from 1990 to 2019: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"10","author":"Du","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Ther"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taab146","article-title":"Global burden for dengue and the evolving pattern in the past 30 years","volume":"28","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature New Biol"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0476-8"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.08347","article-title":"The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus","volume":"4","author":"Kraemer","year":"2015","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762008005000003"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1306556"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-338"},{"key":"2025073015264204000_10.5.e014688.9","unstructured":"Lee J-Y , Marotzke J , Bala G , et al . 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