{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,5]],"date-time":"2026-11-05T19:38:38Z","timestamp":1793907518851,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753142400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008982","name":"Qatar National Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NPRP grant number 10-1208-160017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NPRP grant number 10-1208-160017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008982","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJNPH"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Jordan has a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but it is estimated that nearly half of all cases in the Middle East and North Africa region remain undiagnosed. This study aimed to develop, validate and assess the diagnostic performance of a diabetes risk score to identify Jordanians at high risk of T2DM.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Random samples of 5000 Jordanians aged 20\u201379 years were simulated at different time points using an existing mathematical model describing T2DM epidemiology in Jordan. The risk score was derived through logistic regression applied to the simulated samples, using age, sex, obesity, smoking and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Cut-off values were determined based on the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2020, the estimated area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of the derived Jordan Diabetes Risk Score were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), 78.7% (95% CI: 77.5 to 79.8%) and 64.2% (95% CI: 62.9 to 65.6%), respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 29.7% (95% CI: 28.4 to 31.0%) and 94.0% (95% CI: 93.3 to 94.7%), with 42.7% of Jordanians at high risk for diabetes. Similar diagnostic metrics were observed for the 2030 and 2050 risk scores, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.79), respectively. The performance of the derived model-based score was comparable to a survey-based score and demonstrated better performance within the Jordanian population compared with existing regional and international scores.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Jordan Diabetes Risk Score demonstrated strong diagnostic performance, offering an effective, non-invasive and accessible tool for diabetes screening. This tool can facilitate early detection, timely intervention and increased awareness, ultimately aiming to reduce the burden of T2DM and its complications in Jordan.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjnph-2024-001027","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T18:25:12Z","timestamp":1753208712000},"page":"422-431","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Development and validation of a Jordan-specific risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8555-4878","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Asalah","family":"Alareeki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation\u2013Education City, Doha, Qatar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5060-7404","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susanne F","family":"Awad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation\u2013Education City, Doha, Qatar"},{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5248-4188","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julia A","family":"Critchley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Research Institute, St George\u2019s School of Health and Medical Sciences, Tooting Campus, City St George\u2019s, University of London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5569-6306","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kamel M","family":"Ajlouni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The National Centre for Diabetes, Endocrine and Genetics, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7830-6857","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yousef","family":"Khader","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology Faculty of Medicine, Irbid, Jordan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0790-0506","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Laith J","family":"Abu-Raddad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation\u2013Education City, Doha, Qatar"},{"name":"Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA"},{"name":"Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar"},{"name":"College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026010709451034000_8.2.422.1","unstructured":"International Diabetes Federation . 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