{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,16]],"date-time":"2025-12-16T12:28:21Z","timestamp":1765888101664},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"1","funder":[{"name":"Jiangsu Province Health and Family Planning Projects"},{"name":"Fundamental and Application Research in Health Care of Suzhou"},{"name":"Jiangsu Province Health and Family Planning Projects"},{"name":"Fundamental and Application Research in Health Care of Suzhou"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,13]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>The aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of intussusception cases younger than 48 months and to develop a forecasting model for the occurrence of intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design<\/jats:title><jats:p>A retrospective study of intussusception cases that occurred between January 2007 and December 2017.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title><jats:p>Retrospective chart reviews of intussusception paediatric patients in a large Children\u2019s hospital in South-East China were performed.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants<\/jats:title><jats:p>The hospital records of 13\u2009887 intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months were included in this study.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Interventions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The modelling process was conducted using the appropriate module in SPSS V.23.0.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the monthly recorded intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months in Suzhou from 2007 to 2016.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Epidemiological analysis revealed that intussusception younger than 48 months was reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the late spring and early summer months. The most affected age group was younger than 36 months. The time-series analysis showed that an ARIMA (1,0,1 1,1,1)<jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub>model offered the best fit for surveillance data of intussusception younger than 48 months. This model was used to predict intussusception younger than 48 months for the year 2017, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>ARIMA models are useful for monitoring intussusception in patients younger than 48 months and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future cases in Suzhou. The models are helpful for predicting intussusception cases in Suzhou and could be useful for developing early warning systems. They may also play a key role in early detection, timely treatment and prevention of serious complications in cases of intussusception.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2018-024712","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,18]],"date-time":"2019-01-18T09:36:38Z","timestamp":1547804198000},"page":"e024712","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Forecasting and predicting intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Wan-liang","family":"Guo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jia","family":"Geng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yang","family":"Zhan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ya-lan","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhang-chun","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peng","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mao","family":"Sheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jian","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shun-gen","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.106.6.1413"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.inf.0000197713.32880.46"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0068482","article-title":"Childhood intussusception: a literature review","volume":"8","author":"Jiang","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.4","first-page":"518","article-title":"Childhood intussusception: 17-year experience at a tertiary referral centre in Hong Kong","volume":"21","author":"Wong","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hong Kong Med J"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0090521","article-title":"Association of meteorological factors with pediatric intussusception in subtropical china: a 5-year analysis","volume":"9","author":"Guo","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/605051"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2007-1590"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1440-1754.2005.00686.x"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apjtm.2016.12.007","article-title":"Forecasting the number of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in south of Fars province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series method","volume":"10","author":"Sharafi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Trop Med"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"566","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1602-1","article-title":"Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence","volume":"15","author":"Anwar","year":"2016","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.11","first-page":"842","article-title":"Application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model in forecasting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan, China","volume":"37","author":"Peng","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Huazhong Univ Sci Technolog Med Sci"},{"key":"2024051714465060000_9.1.e024712.12","unstructured":"Gep B , Jenkins GM , Reinsel GC . 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