{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,5]],"date-time":"2026-07-05T06:52:22Z","timestamp":1783234342759,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,23]],"date-time":"2020-03-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1584921600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":22,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100001547","name":"China Medical Board","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["18-301"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["18-301"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100001547","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["71672163"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["71672163"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["81703278"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81703278"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["81803334"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81803334"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship","award":["APP1092621"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APP1092621"]}]},{"name":"A Major Infectious Disease Prevention and Control of the National Science and Technique Major Project","award":["2018ZX10715004"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018ZX10715004"]}]},{"name":"National Science and Technology Major Project of China","award":["2018ZX10721102"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018ZX10721102"]}]},{"name":"Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen, China","award":["SZSM201811071"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SZSM201811071"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,4]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Internet search engine data have been widely used to monitor and predict infectious diseases. Existing studies have found correlations between search data and HIV\/AIDS epidemics. We aimed to extend the literature through exploring the feasibility of using search data to monitor and predict the number of newly diagnosed cases of HIV\/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This paper used vector autoregressive model to combine the number of newly diagnosed cases with Baidu search index to predict monthly newly diagnosed cases of HIV\/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China. The procedures included: (1) keywords selection and filtering; (2) construction of composite search index; (3) modelling with training data from January 2011 to October 2016 and calculating the prediction performance with validation data from November 2016 to October 2017.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The analysis showed that there was a close correlation between the monthly number of newly diagnosed cases and the composite search index (the Spearman\u2019s rank correlation coefficients were 0.777 for HIV\/AIDS, 0.590 for syphilis and 0.633 for gonorrhoea, p&lt;0.05 for all). The R\n                      <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                      were all more than 85% and the mean absolute percentage errors were less than 11%, showing the good fitting effect and prediction performance of vector autoregressive model in this field.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our study indicated the potential feasibility of using Baidu search data to monitor and predict the number of newly diagnosed cases of HIV\/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-036098","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,24]],"date-time":"2020-03-24T16:24:29Z","timestamp":1585067069000},"page":"e036098","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Using Baidu search index to monitor and predict newly diagnosed cases of HIV\/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhea in China: estimates from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4586-8172","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ruonan","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ganfeng","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qibin","family":"Duan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia"},{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2343-084X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseass, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China"},{"name":"Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"},{"name":"Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qingpeng","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9026-707X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Weiming","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of North Carolina Project China, Guangzhou, China"},{"name":"Southern Medical University Dermatology Hospital, Guangzhou, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5861-8100","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M. 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