{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,16]],"date-time":"2026-05-16T15:44:03Z","timestamp":1778946243178,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]],"date-time":"2022-07-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1657065600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000589","name":"Chief Scientist Office","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["COV\/LTE\/20\/15"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["COV\/LTE\/20\/15"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000589","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,17]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>COVID-19 is commonly experienced as an acute illness, yet some people continue to have symptoms that persist for weeks, or months (commonly referred to as \u2018long-COVID\u2019). It remains unclear which patients are at highest risk of developing long-COVID. In this protocol, we describe plans to develop a prediction model to identify individuals at risk of developing long-COVID.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and analysis<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We will use the national Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) platform, a population-level linked dataset of routine electronic healthcare data from 5.4\u2009million individuals in Scotland. We will identify potential indicators for long-COVID by identifying patterns in primary care data linked to information from out-of-hours general practitioner encounters, accident and emergency visits, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, medication prescribing\/dispensing and mortality. We will investigate the potential indicators of long-COVID by performing a matched analysis between those with a positive reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) test for SARS-CoV-2 infection and two control groups: (1) individuals with at least one negative RT-PCR test and never tested positive; (2) the general population (everyone who did not test positive) of Scotland. Cluster analysis will then be used to determine the final definition of the outcome measure for long-COVID. We will then derive, internally and externally validate a prediction model to identify the epidemiological risk factors associated with long-COVID.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Ethics and dissemination<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The EAVE II study has obtained approvals from the Research Ethics Committee (reference: 12\/SS\/0201), and the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care (reference: 1920-0279). Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. Understanding the predictors for long-COVID and identifying the patient groups at greatest risk of persisting symptoms will inform future treatments and preventative strategies for long-COVID.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2021-059385","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]],"date-time":"2022-07-06T12:20:18Z","timestamp":1657110018000},"page":"e059385","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Deriving and validating a risk prediction model for long COVID-19: protocol for an observational cohort study using linked Scottish data"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0564-4000","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luke","family":"Daines","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel H","family":"Mulholland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6850-7578","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eleftheria","family":"Vasileiou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9854-3868","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vicky","family":"Hammersley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Weatherill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6593-9092","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Srinivasa Vittal","family":"Katikireddi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC\/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Steven","family":"Kerr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Emily","family":"Moore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elisa","family":"Pesenti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Cell Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0149-4869","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer K","family":"Quint","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5672-0443","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Syed Ahmar","family":"Shah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4101-4535","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ting","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Colin R","family":"Simpson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"},{"name":"School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chris","family":"Robertson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aziz","family":"Sheikh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025121512504426000_12.7.e059385.1","unstructured":"World Health Organization . 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