{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,28]],"date-time":"2026-03-28T05:56:08Z","timestamp":1774677368590,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,25]],"date-time":"2023-10-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1698192000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":24,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-004713"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-004713"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000769","name":"University of Oxford","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Clarendon Award"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Clarendon Award"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000769","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000769","name":"University of Oxford","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Clinician-Investigator Award"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Clinician-Investigator Award"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000769","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,5]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease responsible for many thousands of preventable deaths each year. Symptomatic patients often struggle to access effective treatment, without which death is the norm. Risk prediction tools support clinical teams and policymakers in identifying high-risk patients who could benefit from more intensive management pathways. Investigators interested in using their clinical data for prognostic research should first identify currently available models that are candidates for validation and possible updating. Addressing these needs, we aim to identify, summarise and appraise the available models predicting clinical outcomes in VL patients.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods and analysis<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We will include studies that have developed, validated or updated prognostic models predicting future clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with VL. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses that include eligible studies are also considered for review. Conference abstracts and educational theses are excluded. Data extraction, appraisal and reporting will follow current methodological guidelines. Ovid Embase; Ovid MEDLINE; the Web of Science Core Collection, SciELO and LILACS are searched from database inception to 1 March 2023 using terms developed for the identification of prediction models, and with no language restriction. Screening, data extraction and risk of bias assessment will be performed in duplicate with discordance resolved by a third independent reviewer. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Tables and figures will compare and contrast key model information, including source data, participants, model development and performance measures, and risk of bias. We will consider the strengths, limitations and clinical applicability of the identified models.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Ethics and dissemination<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Ethics approval is not required for this review. The systematic review and all accompanying data will be submitted to an open-access journal. Findings will also be disseminated through the research group\u2019s website (<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"www.iddo.org\/research-themes\/visceral-leishmaniasis\">www.iddo.org\/research-themes\/visceral-leishmaniasis<\/jats:ext-link>) and social media channels.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>PROSPERO registration number<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>CRD42023417226.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-075597","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,24]],"date-time":"2023-10-24T23:21:06Z","timestamp":1698189666000},"page":"e075597","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Prognostic prediction models for clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis: protocol for a systematic review"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3615-4928","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James","family":"Wilson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Forhad","family":"Chowdhury","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shermarke","family":"Hassan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elinor K","family":"Harriss","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bodleian Health Care Libraries, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fabiana","family":"Alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Drugs for Neglected Disease Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Prabin","family":"Dahal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kasia","family":"Stepniewska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Philippe J","family":"Gu\u00e9rin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(18)31204-2"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(02)00372-9"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.3","unstructured":"World Health Organization . Leishmaniasis. Available: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/leishmaniasis [Accessed 24 Aug 2023]."},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.00048-18","article-title":"Recent development of visceral leishmaniasis treatments: successes, pitfalls, and perspectives","volume":"31","author":"Alves","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin Microbiol Rev"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.00061-07"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.7","unstructured":"Ministry of Health (Brazil) . Guide to Health Surveillance. 5th Edition, revised and updated. (Guia de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade. 5a edi\u00e7\u00e3o revisada e atualizada). Brasilia, Brazil, Available: https:\/\/bvsms.saude.gov.br\/bvs\/publicacoes\/guia_vigilancia_saude_5ed_rev_atual.pdf [accessed 24 Aug 2023]."},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010696","article-title":"The increasing incidence of visceral leishmaniasis relapse in South Sudan: a retrospective analysis of field patient data from 2001\u20132018","volume":"16","author":"Naylor-Leyland","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002982","article-title":"Risk factors for adverse prognosis and death in American visceral leishmaniasis: a meta-analysis","volume":"8","author":"Belo","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m1328","article-title":"Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19: systematic review and critical appraisal","volume":"369","author":"Wynants","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-044687","article-title":"Systematic review of prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in adults","volume":"11","author":"Peetluk","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-030793","article-title":"Prognostic models for the clinical management of malaria and its complications: a systematic review","volume":"9","author":"Njim","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.b605","article-title":"Prognosis and prognostic research: validating a prognostic model","volume":"338","author":"Altman","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001381","article-title":"Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research","volume":"10","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.311.7019.1539"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.n71","article-title":"The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews","volume":"372","author":"Page","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj-2022-073538","article-title":"Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models for individual prognosis or diagnosis: checklist for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (TRIPOD-SRMA)","volume":"381","author":"Snell","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/2046-4053-4-1"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.i6460","article-title":"A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance","volume":"356","author":"Debray","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001744","article-title":"Critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies: the CHARMS checklist","volume":"11","author":"Moons","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2014.11.025"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1377"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.k4597","article-title":"A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies","volume":"364","author":"Riley","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jamia.2001.0080391"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0032844","article-title":"Search filters for finding prognostic and diagnostic prediction studies in MEDLINE to enhance systematic reviews","volume":"7","author":"Geersing","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.26","unstructured":"Covidence systematic review software, Veritas health innovation. Melbourne, Australia, Available: www.covidence.org"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbi.2019.103208"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.i4919","article-title":"ROBINS-I: a tool for assessing risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions","volume":"355","author":"Sterne","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.l4898","article-title":"RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials","volume":"366","author":"Sterne","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cmi.2022.07.019","article-title":"How to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic model studies","volume":"29","author":"Damen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Clin Microbiol Infect"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1128\/mbio.02068-22","article-title":"Parasite genotype is a major predictor of mortality from visceral leishmaniasis","volume":"13","author":"Grace","year":"2022","journal-title":"mBio"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/381203"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005781","article-title":"Systematic review of clinical trials assessing the therapeutic efficacy of visceral leishmaniasis treatments: a first step to assess the feasibility of establishing an individual patient data sharing platform","volume":"11","author":"Bush","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2025101811132628000_13.10.e075597.34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001886","article-title":"Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses of diagnostic and prognostic modeling studies: guidance on their use","volume":"12","author":"Debray","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLOS Med"}],"container-title":["BMJ Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-075597","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,18]],"date-time":"2025-10-18T18:13:34Z","timestamp":1760811214000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmjopen.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-075597"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,24]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-075597"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-075597","relation":{},"ISSN":["2044-6055","2044-6055"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2044-6055","type":"print"},{"value":"2044-6055","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10]]}}}