{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T15:43:30Z","timestamp":1780501410089,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,27]],"date-time":"2025-10-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761523200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":26,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004359","name":"Swedish Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2021-00154"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021-00154"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004359","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"AFA","award":["200362"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200362"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,7]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The length and frequency of previous sickness absence (SA) spells have been shown to be associated with future SA. The aim was to examine if this pattern persisted during the COVID-19 pandemic among workers in retail and sales.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used pseudonymised, individual-level data from three nationwide Swedish administrative registers to conduct a prospective cohort study.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Sweden.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Participants<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>All 306\u2009933 blue-collar workers in retail and wholesale, aged 18\u201367 in Sweden in 2019.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Outcomes<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Likelihood and length of SA.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used a Negative Binomial Hurdle model to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and odds ratios (ORs) to determine if SA patterns differed in 2020\u20132021 compared with 2018\u20132019. We examined how these patterns varied according to the length and frequency of SA in the preceding year. Only SA spells &gt;14\u2009days were included.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>54\u2009993 (18.5%) workers had SA during 2020\u20132021, an increase from 46\u2009024 (15.6%) in 2018\u20132019. We observed a dose-response association between the number of prior SA days and the likelihood and length of future SA days, both before and during the pandemic. The likelihood of subsequent SA was higher in 2020\u20132021 compared with 2018\u20132019 among individuals with up to 180 prior SA days. Individuals with no prior SA had a lower average number of subsequent SA days during the pandemic (IRR (95%\u2009CI) 0.96 (0.94\u20130.98)) than in 2018\u20132019, while those with 1\u201330, 31\u201390 or 181\u2013365 prior SA days had a higher average number of SA days during 2020\u20132021.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individuals with many SA days prior to the pandemic were at particularly high risk of lengthy SA during the pandemic years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2024-096764","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,28]],"date-time":"2025-10-28T02:10:12Z","timestamp":1761617412000},"page":"e096764","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Associations between prior and subsequent sickness absence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Swedish prospective cohort study of 306 933 blue-collar workers in the retail and wholesale industry"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1774-7288","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lukasz","family":"Cybulski","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emma","family":"Pettersson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristina","family":"Alexanderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9595-6627","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kristin","family":"Farrants","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-021-11013-2","article-title":"Patterns and predictors of sick leave after Covid-19 and long Covid in a national Swedish cohort","volume":"21","author":"Westerlind","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-15115-x","article-title":"Impact of pre-pandemic sick leave diagnoses on the length of COVID-19-related sick leave: a nationwide registry-based study","volume":"23","author":"Abzhandadze","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-021-11918-y","article-title":"Recurrent sick leave after COVID-19: investigating the first wave of the pandemic in a comprehensive Swedish registry-based study","volume":"21","author":"Palstam","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/oemed-2022-108555"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0260652","article-title":"Patterns and predictors of sick leave among Swedish non-hospitalized healthcare and residential care workers with Covid-19 during the early phase of the pandemic","volume":"16","author":"Kisiel","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2021-054533","article-title":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on sickness absence for mental ill health in National Health Service staff","volume":"11","author":"van der Plaat","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"2025120415090756000_15.10.e096764.7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1348","DOI":"10.1080\/07420528.2020.1805458","article-title":"Can psychosocial working conditions help to explain the impact of shiftwork on health in male- and female-dominated occupations? 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