{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:52:46Z","timestamp":1791553966798,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791504000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":8,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2026-120070","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:30:40Z","timestamp":1791552640000},"page":"e120070","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimating the economic burden of ischaemic stroke in China from 2022 to 2030: a population-based modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-1021-1012","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lu","family":"Han","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dejian","family":"Kou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jialong","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Shao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fengyi","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xinru","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Maitland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Nicholas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Newcastle Business School, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia"},{"name":"Australian National Institute of Management and Commerce, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jian","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China"},{"name":"Center for Health Economics and Management, Wuhan University School of Economics and Management, Wuhan, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1474-4422(21)00252-0"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.2","unstructured":"Yan LL , Li C , Chen J , et al . Stroke. In: Prabhakaran D , Anand S , Gaziano TA , et al , eds. Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders. Washington (DC): The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development \/ The World Bank, 2017: 30212070."},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1145","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)30427-1","article-title":"Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","volume":"394","author":"Zhou","year":"2019","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.l6983","article-title":"Management of acute ischemic stroke","volume":"368","author":"Phipps","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000013222"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.6","first-page":"553","article-title":"China Stroke Statistics 2020","volume":"17","author":"Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Stroke"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrneurol.2010.36"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1136\/svn-2020-000457","article-title":"China Stroke Statistics 2019","volume":"5","author":"Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Stroke Vasc Neurol"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/STROKEAHA.120.029606"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.10","unstructured":"Jing W , Wang X , Liu G-E . Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of ginkgo diterpene lactone meglumine injection in the treatment of ischemic stroke. Chin J Pharmacoecon 2017;19\u201324. doi:10.12010\/j.issn.1673-5846.2017.12.004"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000074804"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s13561-024-00513-7","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness of endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke in China: evidence from Shandong Peninsula","volume":"14","author":"Han","year":"2024","journal-title":"Health Econ Rev"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2017-018951","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy within 6 hours of acute ischaemic stroke in China","volume":"8","author":"Pan","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1177\/2396987319883160","article-title":"Economic burden of stroke across Europe: a population-based cost analysis","volume":"5","author":"Luengo-Fernandez","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur Stroke J"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-080634","article-title":"Estimating the economic burden of stroke in China: a cost-of-illness study","volume":"14","author":"Ma","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000001258"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.17","unstructured":"Shihong W , Yao L , Zihua Y , et al . Prediction of chronic kidney disease incidence and prevalence in China from 2020 to 2029 based on time series model. Chronic Disease Prevention and Control in China 2023;801\u20136."},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7172","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph120707172","article-title":"Forecasting and analyzing the disease burden of aged population in China, based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study","volume":"12","author":"Bao","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1080\/01431160902893592","article-title":"Univariate approach to the monthly total ozone time series over Kolkata, India: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural network (AR-NN) models","volume":"31","author":"Chattopadhyay","year":"2010","journal-title":"Int J Remote Sens"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.20","unstructured":"Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network . Global burden of disease study 2021 (GBD 2021). Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2024. Available: https:\/\/vizhub.healthdata.org\/gbd-results [accessed 30 Apr 2024]."},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.21","unstructured":"China health statistics yearbook. 2010-2022. Available: http:\/\/www.nhc.gov.cn\/mohwsbwstjxxzx\/tjzxtjsj\/tjsj_list.shtml [Accessed 30 Apr 2024]."},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/svn-2023-002296"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.25122\/jml-2021-0361"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-8510(99)00028-7"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1016\/0277-9536(87)90184-5","article-title":"Evaluating healthy days of life gained from health projects","volume":"24","author":"Barnum","year":"1987","journal-title":"Soc Sci Med"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.26","unstructured":"China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study [EB\/OL]. n.d. Available: https:\/\/charls.pku.edu.cn\/"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.5414\/CP203675","article-title":"Application of ARIMA model in monitoring the use rate of antibiotics in outpatients in 2010 \u2013 2018","volume":"58","author":"Xie","year":"2020","journal-title":"CP"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1011","DOI":"10.2147\/IDR.S190418","article-title":"Application of a hybrid model in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in a Chinese population","volume":"12","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"Infect Drug Resist"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2022.e12239","article-title":"Forecasting of Beijing PM2.5 with a hybrid ARIMA model based on integrated AIC and improved GS fixed-order methods and seasonal decomposition","volume":"8","author":"Zhao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/STROKEAHA.122.040073"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(21)01330-1"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2021.22208"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2020.11.010"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1092","DOI":"10.4103\/aian.aian_318_22","article-title":"Caregiver burden in caregivers of stroke survivors","volume":"25","author":"Kumar","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ann Indian Acad Neurol"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"765","DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-018-0416-4","article-title":"Friction cost estimates of productivity costs in cost-of-illness studies in comparison with human capital estimates: a review","volume":"16","author":"Pike","year":"2018","journal-title":"Appl Health Econ Health Policy"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2014.02.017"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1474-4422(19)30034-1"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.38","first-page":"523","article-title":"China\u2019s guidelines of diagnosis and treatment of acute ischemic stroke 2023","volume":"57","year":"2024","journal-title":"Chin Neurosci J"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.39","first-page":"1071","article-title":"Chinese guidelines for secondary prevention of ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack 2022","volume":"55","year":"2022","journal-title":"Chin J Neurol"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jns.2010.05.016"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2309137"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)32136-1"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hec.1518"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijnurstu.2022.104213"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152171","DOI":"10.1016\/j.comppsych.2020.152171","article-title":"Post-stroke depression and functional impairments - a 3-year prospective study","volume":"99","author":"Sch\u00f6ttke","year":"2020","journal-title":"Compr Psychiatry"},{"key":"2026100906302828000_16.10.e120070.46","unstructured":"Ma Y . Study on medical expenses and influencing factors of stroke patients in Chinese urban residents. Beijing: Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, 2018."}],"container-title":["BMJ Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2026-120070","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T13:30:46Z","timestamp":1791552646000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmjopen.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2026-120070"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1136\/bmjopen-2026-120070"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2026-120070","relation":{},"ISSN":["2044-6055","2044-6055"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2044-6055","type":"print"},{"value":"2044-6055","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}}}