{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,5]],"date-time":"2026-09-05T02:20:40Z","timestamp":1788574840106,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":76,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,23]],"date-time":"2024-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1727049600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":22,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Geographic Society Coding for Conservation program","award":["102825"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["102825"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV 049262"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV 049262"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP 1211841"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP 1211841"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NU51IP000812"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU51IP000812"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["bmjph"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,22]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a primary source of acute lower respiratory tract infection, the leading cause of death in children under 5. Over 99% of RSV-attributed deaths occur in low-income countries, including Madagascar. RSV transmission is linked to climate, driving highly seasonal dynamics.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We used generalised additive models (GAMs) to identify correlates of reported RSV infections in Antananarivo, Madagascar, from January 2011 to December 2021, then fit catalytic models to cumulative age-structured incidence to estimate age-specific force of infection (FOI). We fit a time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model to the dataset to estimate weekly RSV transmission, then evaluated associations with precipitation, humidity and temperature using generalised linear models. We used GAMs to quantify interannual trends in climate and assess whether significant deviations in RSV burden occurred in years representing climatic anomalies.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Reported RSV infections in Antananarivo were significantly associated with patients aged \u22642 years. Highest FOI was estimated in patients aged \u22641 year, with transmission declining to near-zero by age 5 before rising in older (60+) cohorts. TSIR models estimated a January to February peak in RSV transmission, which was strongly positively associated with precipitation and more weakly with temperature but negatively related to relative humidity. Precipitation, humidity and temperature all increased across the study period in Antananarivo, while reported RSV infections remained stable. Significant deviations in RSV burden were not associated with clear climate anomalies.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Stable rates of reported RSV infections in Antananarivo across the past decade may reflect contrasting impacts of elevated precipitation and increased humidity on transmission. If future climate changes yield more rapidly accelerating precipitation than humidity, this could accelerate RSV burden. Introduction of recently developed public health interventions to combat RSV in low-income settings like Madagascar is essential to mitigating disease burden, in particular to combat any future climate-driven increases in transmission or severity.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjph-2024-001093","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,23]],"date-time":"2024-09-23T08:50:17Z","timestamp":1727081417000},"page":"e001093","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Identifying climatic drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality in Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2011\u20132021: a sentinel surveillance study"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"2","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-7200-0687","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tsiry Hasina","family":"Randriambolamanantsoa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2063-3932","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Norosoa Harline","family":"Razanajatovo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hafaliana Christian","family":"Ranaivoson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA"},{"name":"Department of Zoology and Animal Biodiversity, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laurence","family":"Randrianasolo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hasina Joelinotahiana","family":"Rabarison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Helisoa","family":"Razafimanjato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arv\u00e9","family":"Ratsimbazafy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danielle Aurore Doll","family":"Rakoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Doctoral School of Life and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean-Michel","family":"Heraud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3173-4053","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vincent","family":"Lacoste","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cara E","family":"Brook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025083110242548000_2.2.e001093.1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-88524-w","article-title":"Population-based serology reveals risk factors for RSV infection in children younger than 5 years","volume":"11","author":"Andeweg","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"2025083110242548000_2.2.e001093.2","unstructured":"OWi D . 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