{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T14:04:06Z","timestamp":1784642646250,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784592000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":20,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["bmjph"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,5]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are increasingly contributing to morbidity and mortality in Africa. Existing NCD surveillance systems are often fragmented and rely on routine health data, population surveys or environmental metrics collected independently. Emerging applications in machine learning and geospatial analytics create new opportunities for integrated predictive modelling of NCDs, yet there is limited evidence of feasibility as well as methodological performance and policy relevance in African settings.<\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>The objective of this systematic review is to synthesise evidence from studies that combine NCD prediction with routine health data, survey data and environmental exposures in Africa. The review will examine methodological approaches, predictive performance, interoperability and implications for surveillance systems.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and analysis<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This systematic review protocol was prospectively registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under registration number CRD420251116003. We will search PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, WHO Global Index Medicus and grey literature under sources such as Google Scholar; WHO, Africa CDC repositories and University of Zambia library resources from 2000 to 2025. Screening will be conducted independently by two reviewers using Rayyan for study selection and conflict resolution in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The risk of bias will be evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for predictive modelling. The results will be synthesised narratively as heterogeneity in methods and outcomes is anticipated.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Ethics and dissemination<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Ethical approval is not required because this review will use data from published studies and will not involve human participants or primary data collection. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication, conference presentations and sharing with relevant public health stakeholders.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>PROSPERO registration number<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>CRD420251116003.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjph-2025-004707","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T13:30:28Z","timestamp":1784640628000},"page":"e004707","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Integration of routine health information, population surveys and environmental data for predictive modelling of non-communicable diseases in Africa: a systematic review protocol"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-3706-4765","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nyambe","family":"Sinyange","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"},{"name":"Workforce Development, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Timothy","family":"Robinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics & Statistics, University of Wyoming, Wyoming, Laramie, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jackson","family":"Phiri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Veranyuy","family":"Ngah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Health, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Allan Mayaba","family":"Mwiinde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isaac","family":"Fwemba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.1","unstructured":"World Health Organisation . Country disease outlook. 2023."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.2","unstructured":"World Health Organisation . Statement by the Republic of Zambia on agenda item 11.2. 2018."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.3","unstructured":"World Health Organisation . Global status report on noncommunicable diseases\u20142024. Geneva: WHO, 2024."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1177\/20552076251395551","article-title":"Assessing the landscape of digital health implementation for data services in Cameroon","volume":"11","author":"Nsai","year":"2025","journal-title":"Digit Health"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.5","first-page":"350","article-title":"Interoperability of Health Information Systems in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC): Implementation of Cluster Care System","volume":"328","author":"Jayathissa","year":"2025","journal-title":"Stud Health Technol Inform"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.6","unstructured":"World Health Organisation . Strategy for optimizing national routine health information systems: strengthening routine health information systems to deliver primary health care and universal health coverage. World Health Organization, 2024."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.14.04003","article-title":"The impact of environmental conditions on non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review of epidemiologic evidence","volume":"14","author":"Anyanwu","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Glob Health"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lawson A , Kleinman K . Spatial and syndromic surveillance for public health (Wiley series in probability and statistics). 2005.","DOI":"10.1002\/0470092505"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-publhealth-031816-044348"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i26","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyz181","article-title":"Advances in spatiotemporal models for non-communicable disease surveillance","volume":"49 Suppl 1","author":"Blangiardo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1831129","article-title":"Spatial and temporal inequalities in non-communicable disease mortality across the East African community: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis","volume":"14","author":"Chinembiri","year":"2026","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.12","unstructured":"von Bertalanffy L . General system theory: foundations, development, applications. 1968."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.13","unstructured":"Checkland P , Scholes J . Soft systems methodology in action. John Wiley & Sons, 1999."},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/2046-4053-4-1","article-title":"Preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement","volume":"4","author":"Moher","year":"2015","journal-title":"Syst Rev"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1080\/1941126X.2018.1444339","article-title":"Rayyan for systematic reviews","volume":"30","author":"Johnson","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Electron Resour Librariansh"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001744","article-title":"Critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies: the CHARMS checklist","volume":"11","author":"Moons","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1376"},{"key":"2026072106301657000_4.3.e004707.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/ACI.0b013e32833c148b"}],"container-title":["BMJ Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjph-2025-004707","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T13:30:41Z","timestamp":1784640641000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmjpublichealth.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjph-2025-004707"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"references-count":18,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1136\/bmjph-2025-004707"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmjph-2025-004707","relation":{},"ISSN":["2753-4294"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2753-4294","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]}}}