{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T22:02:05Z","timestamp":1740175325966,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,7]],"date-time":"2024-08-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1722988800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":6,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BMJ Open Sport Exerc Med"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,23]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in young adulthood is a determinant of chronic disease risk. To better understand whether CRF might also behave as a modifiable risk factor, we examined the associations between longitudinal changes in 2.4 km run times and health outcomes in a cohort of healthy young men.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Our dataset comprised individual run times and health outcomes captured in four national registries. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between baseline run times and relative hazards of first major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Relative hazards associated with longitudinal change in run times were estimated using models that were adjusted for run-time at baseline.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The study sample comprised 148\u2009825 healthy men ages 18\u201334 years who had undergone at least two routine fitness tests that were 5\u20139 years apart. During 1\u2009294\u2009778 person-years of follow-up, we observed 1275 first MACE and 764 ACM events occurring at mean ages of 43.2 (SD 6.0) years and 39.2 (SD 6.6) years, respectively. A 1% increase in run-time per annum was associated with a 1.13 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.16) times greater hazard of first MACE and a 1.06 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.10) times greater hazard of ACM. The association between longitudinal change in run times and first MACE was preserved in sensitivity analyses using models adjusted for body mass index at baseline.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Among men under the age of 35 years, longitudinal change in run times was associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease two decades onwards.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjsem-2024-001986","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,8]],"date-time":"2024-08-08T18:27:49Z","timestamp":1723141669000},"page":"e001986","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Longitudinal change in cardiorespiratory fitness and the association with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in young Asian men: a cohort study"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3527-2228","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexander Wilhelm","family":"Gorny","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Suriya","family":"Prakaash","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jia Wei","family":"Neo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Weien","family":"Chow","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Khung Keong","family":"Yeo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jonathan","family":"Yap","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Falk","family":"M\u00fcller-Riemenschneider","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2009.01.371"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1161\/JAHA.115.002014","article-title":"Effects of exercise training on cardiorespiratory fitness and biomarkers of cardiometabolic health: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials","volume":"4","author":"Lin","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Am Heart Assoc"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcad.2017.03.001"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61031-9"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32152-9"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2009.681"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.7","first-page":"1054","volume-title":"In Mayo Clin Proc","volume":"97","author":"Laukkanen","year":"2022"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjsports-2021-104876"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1995.03520380029031"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.111.038422"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000000461"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.12","first-page":"1406","volume-title":"In Mayo Clinic Proceedings","volume":"94","author":"Imboden","year":"2019"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1007\/s13679-020-00403-z","article-title":"A review of obesity, physical activity, and cardiovascular disease","volume":"9","author":"Elagizi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Curr Obes Rep"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)02268-5"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1177","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjmed.2017.02.036","article-title":"Cardiorespiratory fitness change and mortality risk among black and white patients: henry ford exercise testing (FIT) project","volume":"130","author":"Ehrman","year":"2017","journal-title":"Am J Med"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1161\/STROKEAHA.118.021798","article-title":"Change in cardiorespiratory fitness and risk of stroke and death: long-term follow-up of healthy middle-aged men","volume":"50","author":"Prestgaard","year":"2019","journal-title":"Stroke"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40279-018-0974-5"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehz774"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"959","DOI":"10.1093\/eurjpc\/zwab169","article-title":"Combinations of BMI and cardiorespiratory fitness categories: trends between 1995 and 2020 and associations with CVD incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality in 471 216 adults","volume":"29","author":"Hemmingsson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Eur J Prev Cardiol"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/cir.0000000000000866"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1076065","article-title":"Cardiorespiratory fitness, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in young men: a cohort study","volume":"11","author":"Gorny","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2015.6309","article-title":"Association of fitness in young adulthood with survival and cardiovascular risk: the coronary artery risk development in young adults (CARDIA) study","volume":"176","author":"Shah","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA Intern Med"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/anec.12634","article-title":"A population-wide study of electrocardiographic (ECG) norms and the effect of demographic and anthropometric factors on selected ECG characteristics in young, Southeast Asian males-results from the singapore armed forces ECG (SAFE) study","volume":"24","author":"Sia","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.24","first-page":"327","article-title":"Assessment of the 2.4 km run as a predictor of aerobic capacity","volume":"78","author":"Burger","year":"1990","journal-title":"S Afr Med J"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1249\/01.MSS.0000064995.89335.40"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.26","unstructured":"American College of Sports Medicine . ACSM\u2019s guidelines for exercise testing and prescription. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2013."},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.27","unstructured":"National Registry of Diseases Office . Singapore myocardial infarction registry annual report 2018. 2020. Available: https:\/\/www.nrdo.gov.sg\/docs\/librariesprovider3\/default-document-library\/smir-web-report-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=ccde799a_0 [accessed 21 Jun 2021]"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.28","unstructured":"National Registry of Diseases Office . Singapore stroke registry annual report 2018. 2020. Available: https:\/\/www.nrdo.gov.sg\/docs\/librariesprovider3\/default-document-library\/ssr-web-report-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=58eb7c4c_0 [accessed 21 Jun 2021]"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1253\/circrep.CR-19-0106","article-title":"Building a longitudinal national integrated cardiovascular database - lessons learnt from singcloud","volume":"2","author":"Yeo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Circ Rep"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/67.1.145","article-title":"Chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests for the proportional hazards regression model","volume":"67","author":"Schoenfeld","year":"1980","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.07.045120"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjsports-2020-102155"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2022.05.031"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCOUTCOMES.111.963181"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.maturitas.2011.08.005"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.36","article-title":"Tracking of cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity from youth to young adulthood: findings from the prospective special turku coronary risk factor intervention project (STRIP)","volume":"9","author":"Fraser","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Pediatr X"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.1016\/j.numecd.2019.12.009","article-title":"Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness through adolescence predict metabolic syndrome in young adults","volume":"30","author":"M\u00e4estu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.938852"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.39","first-page":"184","volume-title":"InMayo Clinic Proceedings","volume":"93","author":"de Lannoy","year":"2018"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcad.2018.12.003","article-title":"The association between the change in directly measured cardiorespiratory fitness across time and mortality risk","volume":"62","author":"Imboden","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prog Cardiovasc Dis"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.41","first-page":"1183","volume-title":"InMayo Clinic Proceedings","volume":"91","author":"Laukkanen","year":"2016"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0197-2456(91)90002-4"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.0842","article-title":"Analysis of cardiorespiratory fitness in early adulthood and midlife with all-cause mortality and fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease","volume":"6","author":"Pettee Gabriel","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1249\/00005768-199202000-00004","article-title":"Symptom-limited graded treadmill exercise testing in young adults in the CARDIA study","volume":"24","author":"Sidney","year":"1992","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2018","DOI":"10.1249\/01.mss.0000189073.33400.04","article-title":"ACSM\u2019s guidelines for exercise testing and prescription, 7th edition","volume":"37","author":"Heath","year":"2005","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyz212","article-title":"Impact of follow-up time and analytical approaches to account for reverse causality on the association between physical activity and health outcomes in UK biobank","volume":"49","author":"Strain","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwm031"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.48","unstructured":"Epidemiology & Disease Control Division . National health survey. Ministry of Health, Singapore; 2010. Available: https:\/\/www.moh.gov.sg\/resources-statistics\/reports\/national-health-survey-2010 [accessed 04 May 2024]"},{"key":"2024080800452047000_10.3.e001986.49","unstructured":"Epidemiology & Disease Control Division and Policy . National population health survey 2022. Singapore Research & Surveillance Group Ministry of Health and Health Promotion Board. Available: https:\/\/hpb.gov.sg\/community\/national-population-health-survey\/survey-findings [accessed 04 May 2024]"}],"container-title":["BMJ Open Sport &amp; Exercise Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjsem-2024-001986","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,8]],"date-time":"2024-08-08T18:28:07Z","timestamp":1723141687000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmjopensem.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/bmjsem-2024-001986"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,7]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1136\/bmjsem-2024-001986"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmjsem-2024-001986","relation":{},"ISSN":["2055-7647"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2055-7647"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]}}}