{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,16]],"date-time":"2026-03-16T12:02:31Z","timestamp":1773662551298,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Heart"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Prognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>To develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>A search for significant prognostic factors (p&lt;0.01) among SEAS patients was made by a combined judgemental and statistical elimination procedure to derive a set of three factors (age, gender and smoking) that were forced into the model, and four additional factors captured by the data: left-ventricular mass index, bilirubin, heart rate and natural logarithm of C reactive protein. Calibration was done by comparing observed with calculated number of deaths by tenths of calculated risk using coefficients from the simvastatin + ezetimibe group on placebo group patients.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Discrimination was good with ROC area of 0.76 for all patients. Estimated probabilities of death were categorised into thirds. An optimised split point of estimated 5-year risk was about 15% (close to the upper 14% tertile split point), with risk 4 times as high in the upper compared to the two lower thirds. The SEAS score performed better than another established high risk score developed for other purposes.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>A new seven factor model for risk stratification of patients with mild to moderate asymptomatic AS identified a high risk group for total mortality with good discrimination properties.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Trial registration number<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT 00092677.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/heartjnl-2011-300475","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,12,9]],"date-time":"2011-12-09T20:30:39Z","timestamp":1323462639000},"page":"377-383","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate 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