{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T22:25:20Z","timestamp":1767911120528,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"15","funder":[{"name":"Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen, Ministry of the Flemish Community, Brussels, Belgium"},{"name":"The European Union"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Heart"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,12]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Data on the contribution of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) components to the risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. We prospectively tested the hypothesis that ABP may represent a potentially modifiable risk factor for the development of AF in a European population study.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We recorded daytime blood pressure (BP) in 3956 subjects randomly recruited from the general population in five European countries. Of these participants, 2776 (70.2%) underwent complete 24-hour ABP monitoring. Median follow-up was 14 years. We defined daytime systolic BP load as the percentage BP readings above 135\u2009mm Hg. The incidence of AF was assessed from ECGs obtained at baseline and follow-up and from records held by general practitioners and\/or hospitals.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Overall, during 58\u2009810 person-years of follow-up, 143 participants experienced new-onset AF. In adjusted Cox models, each SD increase in baseline 24\u2009hours, daytime and night-time systolic BP was associated with a 27% (P=0.0056), 22% (P=0.023) and 20% (P=0.029) increase in the risk for incident AF, respectively. Conventional systolic BP was borderline associated with the risk of AF (18%; P=0.06). As compared with the average population risk, participants in the lower quartile of daytime systolic BP load (&lt;3%) had a 51% (P=0.0038) lower hazard for incident AF, whereas in the upper quartile (&gt;38%), the risk was 46% higher (P=0.0094).<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Systolic ABP is a significant predictor of incident AF in a population-based cohort. We also observed that participants with a daytime systolic BP load &gt;38% had significantly increased risk of incident AF.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/heartjnl-2017-312488","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,13]],"date-time":"2018-02-13T13:14:30Z","timestamp":1518527670000},"page":"1263-1270","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":35,"title":["Ambulatory blood pressure and long-term risk for atrial fibrillation"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"104","author":[{"given":"Val\u00e9rie","family":"Tikhonoff","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6278-1979","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tatiana","family":"Kuznetsova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, KU Leuven Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, Studies Coordinating Centre, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lutgarde","family":"Thijs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, KU Leuven Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, Studies Coordinating Centre, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nicholas","family":"Cauwenberghs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, KU Leuven Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, Studies Coordinating Centre, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katarzyna","family":"Stolarz-Skrzypek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"First Department of Cardiology, Interventional Electrocardiology and Hypertension, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jitka","family":"Seidlerov\u00e1","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Pilsen, Czech Republic"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sofia","family":"Malyutina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine \u2013 Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, SB RAS and Novosibirsk State Medical University, Novosibirsk, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Natasza","family":"Gilis-Malinowska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hypertension Unit, Department of Hypertension and Diabetology, Medical University of Gdansk, Gda\u0144sk, Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ewa","family":"Swierblewska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hypertension Unit, Department of Hypertension and Diabetology, Medical University of Gdansk, Gda\u0144sk, Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kalina","family":"Kawecka-Jaszcz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"First Department of Cardiology, Interventional Electrocardiology and Hypertension, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Filipovsk\u00fd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Pilsen, Czech Republic"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Krzysztof","family":"Narkiewicz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hypertension Unit, Department of Hypertension and Diabetology, Medical University of Gdansk, Gda\u0144sk, Poland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gregory Y H","family":"Lip","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edoardo","family":"Casiglia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jan A","family":"Staessen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Unit Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, KU Leuven Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, Studies Coordinating Centre, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.005119"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61774-8"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.105.595140"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/JAHA.116.005155"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.009035"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.297.7.709"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2014.05.041"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2004.08.042"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/HYPERTENSIONAHA.112.195032"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/HYPERTENSIONAHA.116.07683"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/HJH.0b013e3281c49da5"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1093\/ajh\/hpw149","article-title":"Ambulatory blood pressure characteristics and long-term risk for atrial fibrillation","volume":"30","author":"Perki\u00f6m\u00e4ki","year":"2017","journal-title":"Am J Hypertens"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/HYPERTENSIONAHA.106.085498"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2011.574"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00126097-200308000-00004"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.16","first-page":"13","article-title":"An epidemiological approach to ambulatory blood pressure monitoring:the Belgian Population Study","volume":"1","author":"Staessen","year":"1996","journal-title":"Blood Press Monit"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.hjh.0000431740.32696.cc"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/HJH.0b013e32834f03bf"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/HJH.0b013e3283531eaf"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"877","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2015.05.060","article-title":"Frequency of left ventricular hypertrophy in non-valvular atrial fibrillation","volume":"116","author":"Proietti","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am J Cardiol"},{"key":"2025100702194183000_104.15.1263.21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"458","DOI":"10.1016\/j.recesp.2012.11.011","article-title":"Nighttime ambulatory blood pressure is associated with atrial remodelling and neurohormonal activation in patients with idiopathic atrial fibrillation","volume":"66","author":"Dom\u00e9nech","year":"2013","journal-title":"Rev Esp Cardiol"}],"container-title":["Heart"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.1136\/heartjnl-2017-312488","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,7]],"date-time":"2025-10-07T09:19:47Z","timestamp":1759828787000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/heart.bmj.com\/lookup\/doi\/10.1136\/heartjnl-2017-312488"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,9]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"15","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,12]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1136\/heartjnl-2017-312488"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/heartjnl-2017-312488","relation":{},"ISSN":["1355-6037","1468-201X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1355-6037","type":"print"},{"value":"1468-201X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,9]]}}}