{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T17:48:02Z","timestamp":1782409682304,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"BMJ","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782345600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["202836\/Z\/16\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202836\/Z\/16\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013373","name":"NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BRC-1215-20005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BRC-1215-20005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013373","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"TBI-Reporter","award":["N\/A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["N\/A"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Inj Prev"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are at a greater risk of subsequent violent victimisation, and a prognostic model can assist in identifying those at highest risk who can benefit from targeted interventions. We aimed to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of violent victimisation following TBI in adolescence.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We investigated a cohort of adolescents aged 10 to 24 exposed to TBI between 2009 and 2023, using data from a linked register, covering 86% of the population in Wales, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. We fitted a multivariable Cox regression model for the association between predictors and time to violent victimisation identified in medical records, with optimism-corrected bootstrapping for internal validation. Key performance measures, including discrimination and calibration, were examined at 1 and 3 years post-TBI.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The cohort included 34 092 adolescents, of whom 332 (1.0%) were violently victimised within 1 year and 701 (2.1%) within 3 years of the TBI. The final model included a range of predictors including calendar age, sex at birth, substance misuse, psychiatric conditions, neurological conditions, conduct disorder, learning difficulties and a history of victimisation or self-harm. The clinical prediction model showed good calibration and moderate discrimination at 1 (area under the curve (AUC)=0.72) and 3 years (AUC=0.67) post-TBI.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This brief, scalable and evidence-based prediction model showed moderate predictive performance at internal validation. External validation is necessary to test the model\u2019s transportability.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A large population-based sample was used to identify risk factors for violent victimisation and develop a novel clinical prediction model for use in adolescents with TBI.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/ip-2025-046072","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T17:20:39Z","timestamp":1782408039000},"page":"ip-2025-046072","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Violent victimisation after adolescent traumatic brain injury: development and validation of a clinical prediction model using Welsh national registers"],"prefix":"10.1136","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9009-0622","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maya G T","family":"Ogonah","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ioannis","family":"Mavroudis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurosciences, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Whiting","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institue of Mental Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK"},{"name":"Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, Nottingham, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Seena","family":"Fazel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"},{"name":"Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026062510202947000_ip-2025-046072v1.1","unstructured":"The World Health Organisation . 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