{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T23:19:50Z","timestamp":1769123990399,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,20]],"date-time":"2025-12-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766188800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":49,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Kovacs Foundation","award":["FK-I-25"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FK-I-25"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Occup Environ Med"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To identify factors associated with an increased risk of low back pain (LBP)-related sick leave and to develop prognostic models for both the likelihood and duration of such leave.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A total of 7262 actively working adults were recruited consecutively during their annual check-ups. Seventy-seven variables were assessed, including sociodemographic, clinical, work-related, LBP-related and psychosocial factors. Outcomes included the occurrence of LBP-related sick leave and the number of days on leave over an 18-month follow-up period. Multivariable prognostic models were developed<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>During the follow-up, 535 participants (7.4%, 95%\u2009CI 6.8 to 8.0) took LBP-related sick leave, of whom 162 were off work for \u226530 days. Predictors of taking sick leave were older age, not being self-employed, a usual LBP episode duration &gt;14 days, higher job insecurity, greater self-expectations of taking sick leave and stronger perceived economic consequences of being on leave. Predictors of longer sick leave (\u2265 30 days) were not being self-employed and experiencing LBP while in bed. The models demonstrated good calibration but poor discrimination (C-statistics: 0.607 and 0.604).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Predicting LBP-related sick leave and its duration among the general Spanish workforce remains challenging. Psychosocial and economic variables outweigh clinical or biological predictors. Self-employment is the only factor associated with a lower risk of both sick leave and being off work for \u226530 days.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Trial registration number<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"clintrialgov\" xlink:href=\"NCT00667316\">NCT00667316<\/jats:ext-link>\n                      .\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/oemed-2025-110435","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,24]],"date-time":"2025-12-24T08:35:14Z","timestamp":1766565314000},"page":"547-555","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicting low back pain-related absenteeism in the Spanish general working population"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"82","clinical-trial-number":[{"clinical-trial-number":"nct00667316","registry":"10.18810\/clinical-trials-gov"},{"clinical-trial-number":"nct00667316","registry":"10.18810\/clinical-trials-gov"},{"clinical-trial-number":"nct00360802","registry":"10.18810\/clinical-trials-gov"}],"author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7818-9777","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jes\u00fas","family":"Seco-Calvo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biomedicine (IBIOMED), Universidad de Le\u00f3n, Le\u00f3n, Spain"},{"name":"Department of Physiology-REIDE, University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1665-081X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana","family":"Royuela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biostatistics unit-IDIPHISA-REIDE, Puerta de Hierro University Hospital of Majadahonda, Majadahonda, Spain"},{"name":"CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8887-6669","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vicente","family":"Rodr\u00edguez-P\u00e9rez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nursing and Physiotherapy-REIDE, Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2984-4800","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francisco","family":"Kovacs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Red Espa\u00f1ola de Investigadores en Dolencias de la Espalda (REIDE), Madrid, Spain"},{"name":"Unidad de la Espalda Kovacs, HLA-Moncloa University Hospital, Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"239","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026012122551550000_82.11.547.1","first-page":"1204","article-title":"Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. 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