{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,3]],"date-time":"2026-03-03T17:05:36Z","timestamp":1772557536668,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,3]],"date-time":"2026-03-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772496000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":61,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Commission of Hunan Province","award":["202303"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202303"]}]},{"name":"Commission of Hunan Province","award":["W20243297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["W20243297"]}]},{"name":"Bureau of Hunan Province","award":["2023JJ60379"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023JJ60379"]}]},{"name":"Bureau of Xiangtan City"},{"name":"Association of Xiangtan City"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Open Heart"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,10]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To develop diagnostic models to predict initial heart failure (HF) hospitalisation in patients with unstable angina (UA) and prognostic models to predict rehospitalisation for recurrent or new-onset HF after discharge, aiming to enhance early identification and patient care strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We retrospectively analysed data from 12\u2009857 acute coronary syndrome patients (January 2015 to March 2023). After screening, 7092\u2009UA patients were included and randomly divided into a training cohort (4964) and a validation cohort (2128). Logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression identified risk factors. Diagnostic models were developed and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves. Using the same predictors, prognostic models predicted rehospitalisation at 1, 2 and 6 months postdischarge.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The lambda.1se criterion in LASSO regression identified three key risk factors: left ventricular diameter, N-terminal pro\u2013B-type natriuretic peptide and ischaemic cardiomyopathy. The diagnostic model\u2019s area under the curve (AUC) was 0.938 (95% CI 0.909 to 0.955) in the training cohort and 0.931 (95% CI 0.901 to 0.956) in the validation cohort, showing consistent and reliable performance. Prognostic models for 1, 2 and 6 months postdischarge had AUC values of 0.770, 0.794 and 0.751, respectively, supporting their utility in prognostic evaluations.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The UA diagnostic and prognostic HF model was developed and validated. These models can quickly identify high-risk patients, enabling prompt and tailored interventions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/openhrt-2025-003468","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,3]],"date-time":"2026-03-03T15:30:14Z","timestamp":1772551814000},"page":"e003468","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Development and validation of diagnostic and prognostic models for heart failure in unstable angina patients"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Lingling","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Department, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oncology, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5532-1632","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhican","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ke","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Scientific Research, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mingxin","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xianghong","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Department, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8558-2609","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mingyan","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xiangtan Central Hospital, Xiangtan, Hunan, 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