{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,1]],"date-time":"2025-10-01T16:22:35Z","timestamp":1759335755801,"version":"3.44.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,19]],"date-time":"2024-11-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1731974400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006108","name":"National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1 TR002377"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1 TR002377"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006108","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01 DP006491"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01 DP006491"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000049","name":"National Institute on Aging","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["AG 058738"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["AG 058738"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000049","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["RMD Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The 2019 European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)\/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria score (\u226520 points) has been associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to evaluate its utility as a predictor for mortality and hospitalisation and to derive and validate an ominosity score based on the SLE classification criteria set.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Incident patients with SLE in a population-based cohort were included. The association between the 2019 EULAR\/ACR SLE score and mortality and hospitalisation was assessed using Cox regression adjusted for age, sex and calendar year. An ominosity score for mortality was developed based on the SLE criteria set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to estimate model coefficients. Concordance and calibration were assessed by cross-validation and by plotting the observed event rates against the deciles of predicted probabilities.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Among 374 patients with incident SLE, a EULAR\/ACR score \u226520 points was not associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.67 to 2.03) or first hospitalisation (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.64) compared with a score \u226419 points. The derived ominosity score for mortality included age, sex, thrombocytopaenia, neuropsychiatric manifestations, subacute cutaneous or discoid lupus, non-scarring alopecia, inflammatory arthritis, renal involvement, antiphospholipid antibodies and hypocomplementaemia. This model demonstrated a concordance=0.76 with adequate calibration. Age and sex were the main predictors, as seen in the model including just age, sex and year (concordance=0.77).<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The 2019 EULAR\/ACR SLE criteria score was not associated with mortality and hospitalisation. The derived ominosity score for mortality presented good prediction for mortality but was not better than age and sex alone.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/rmdopen-2024-004833","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,21]],"date-time":"2024-11-21T01:25:43Z","timestamp":1732152343000},"page":"e004833","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Utility of the 2019 EULAR\/ACR SLE classification criteria for predicting mortality and hospitalisation: development and cross-validation of ominosity score"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6077-8899","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel","family":"Figueroa-Parra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"},{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Hospital Universitario Dr Jos\u00e9 Eleuterio Gonz\u00e1lez, Monterrey, Nuevo Le\u00f3n, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrew C","family":"Hanson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alain","family":"Sanchez-Rodriguez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jose A","family":"Meade-Aguilar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mariana","family":"Gonz\u00e1lez-Trevi\u00f1o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda C","family":"Cu\u00e9llar-Guti\u00e9rrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"},{"name":"Hospital Del Salvador, Santiago, Chile"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kamil E","family":"Barbour","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Population Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1749-5719","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Al\u00ed","family":"Duarte-Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA"},{"name":"Robert D. and Patricia E. 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