{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T20:01:41Z","timestamp":1790625701640,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"BMJ","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,11]],"date-time":"2026-02-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770768000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":41,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012295","name":"NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012295","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Bristol Myers Squibb"},{"name":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR","award":["MOP77700"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MOP77700"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["bmj.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["RMD Open"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,7]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine autoantibody positive individuals and define: (a) the relative risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with autoantibody negative individuals and (b) the cumulative incidence of RA over time, in different populations.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A systematic literature search was performed in August 2025. Retrospective case control studies of individuals with RA and healthy matched controls were identified and relative risk of RA was calculated. Prospective observational studies or randomised controlled trials of autoantibody positive individuals were identified and pooled survival models were used to estimate cumulative incidence of progression to arthritis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>293 full-text articles fulfilled screening criteria and 26 were eligible for meta-analysis. The presence of serum autoantibodies confers between a 3.1--19.3-fold increase risk of developing RA. Prospective studies of anticyclic citrullinated peptide 2 (CCP2) or CCP3 positive individuals were grouped according to additional criteria; presence of arthralgia, presence\/absence of immunoglobulin M rheumatoid factor (IgM-RF) and first-degree or second-degree relatives with RA. The estimated cumulative incidence of RA at 12\u2009months was highest for CCP2 positive individuals with arthralgia and IgM-RF, at 35.2% (95% CI 29.3% to 41.2%).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A considerable number of autoantibodies have been examined as predictors for RA; however, the fastest rate of progression to RA in this study occurred in those with CCP2 and IgM-RF in combination with arthralgia. Importantly, the risk of developing RA changes over time for individuals with arthralgia, and they are at the highest risk of progression within the first 24\u2009months of follow-up.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>PROSPERO registration number<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>CRD42021231245.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1136\/rmdopen-2025-006368","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,11]],"date-time":"2026-02-11T16:55:46Z","timestamp":1770828946000},"page":"e006368","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Autoantibodies as predictors of progression to rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis"],"prefix":"10.1136","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-4638-318X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sumera","family":"Qureshi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Rheumatic Diseases, King\u2019s College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maryam","family":"Adas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Rheumatic Diseases, King\u2019s College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Phoebe J","family":"Cope","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"King\u2019s College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hassan","family":"Mahfouz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"King\u2019s College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katie","family":"Bechman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Rheumatic Diseases, King\u2019s College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2211-4861","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kevin D","family":"Deane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hani","family":"El-Gabalawy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Arthritis Centre, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7429-8482","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul","family":"Emery","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Biomedical Research Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Axel","family":"Finckh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6037-6470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Beno\u00eet Thomas P","family":"Gilbert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"V Michael","family":"Holers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Rheumatology, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John D","family":"Isaacs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre at Newcastle-upon-Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7187-1477","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alf","family":"Kastbom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Link\u00f6ping University, Link\u00f6ping, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7945-6582","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kulveer","family":"Mankia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Biomedical Research Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ted R","family":"Mikuls","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, 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