{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T19:24:14Z","timestamp":1787340254047,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (SIAM)","issue":"1","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1084276"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1084276"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001713","name":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/J005088\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/J005088\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001713","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["SIAM\/ASA J. Uncertainty Quantification"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>History matching is a model (pre-)calibration method that has been applied to computer models from a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this work we apply history matching to an individual-based epidemiological model of HIV that has 96 input and 50 output parameters, a model of much larger scale than others that have been calibrated before using this or similar methods. Apart from demonstrating that history matching can analyze models of this complexity, a central contribution of this work is that the history match is carried out using linear regression, a statistical tool that is elementary and easier to implement than the Gaussian process--based emulators that have previously been used. Furthermore, we address a practical difficulty with history matching, namely, the sampling of tiny, nonimplausible spaces, by introducing a sampling algorithm adjusted to the specific needs of this method. The effectiveness and simplicity of the history matching method presented here shows that it is a useful tool for the calibration of computationally expensive, high dimensional, individual-based models.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1137\/16m1093008","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,8,1]],"date-time":"2017-08-01T11:28:42Z","timestamp":1501586922000},"page":"694-719","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model"],"prefix":"10.1137","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Ioannis","family":"Andrianakis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicky","family":"McCreesh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ian","family":"Vernon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Trevelyan J.","family":"McKinley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeremy E.","family":"Oakley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rebecca N.","family":"Nsubuga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Goldstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard G.","family":"White","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"351","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2012.04.020"},{"key":"atypb2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003968"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/TECH.2009.08019"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/0266-5611\/30\/11\/114007"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"P. S. Craig, M. Goldstein, A. H. Seheult, and J. A. Smith,\n                      Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: A case study in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments\n                      , in Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, C. Gastonis, J. S. Hodges, R. E. Kass, R. McCulloch, P. Rossi, and N. D. Singpurwalla, eds., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1997, Vol. 3, pp. 37-93,https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-1-4612-2290-3.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-2290-3_2"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/imammb\/15.1.19"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jspi.2008.07.019"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"M. Goldstein, A. Seheult, and I. Vernon,\n                      Assessing model adequacy\n                      , in Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity, 2nd ed., J. Wainwright and M. Mulligan, eds., Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK, 2013, Chapter 26,https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/9781118351475.ch26.","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118351475.ch26"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008306431147"},{"key":"atypb11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00294"},{"key":"atypb12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TEVC.2005.851274"},{"key":"atypb13","first-page":"9780521642989","author":"MacKay D. J. C.","year":"2003","journal-title":"UK"},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-017-2420-y"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0b013e318254c84a"},{"key":"atypb16","first-page":"239","volume":"21","author":"McKay M. D.","year":"1979","journal-title":"Technometrics"},{"key":"atypb17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2202\/1557-4679.1171"},{"key":"atypb18","first-page":"541","volume":"9","author":"Murray I.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Conf. Artificial Intell. Statist."},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-985X.00125"},{"key":"atypb20","first-page":"7","volume":"6","author":"Plummer M.","year":"2006","journal-title":"R News"},{"key":"atypb21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1994.10476030"},{"key":"atypb22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176344136"},{"key":"atypb23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2008.0172"},{"key":"atypb24","unstructured":"J. United Nations Programme on HIV\/AIDS,\n                      The Gap Report\n                      , Geneva, UNAIDS, 2014,http:\/\/files.unaids.org\/en\/media\/unaids\/contentassets\/documents\/unaidspublication\/2014\/UNAIDS_Gap_report_en.pdf."},{"key":"atypb25","unstructured":"I. Vernon and M. Goldstein,\n                      A Bayes linear approach to systems biology\n                      , MUCM Technical Report, University of Durham, UK, 2010."},{"key":"atypb26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/10-BA524"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/10-BA524REJ"},{"key":"atypb28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/12-STS412"},{"key":"atypb29","unstructured":"I. Vernon, J. Liu, M. Goldstein, J. Rowe, J. Topping, and K. Lindsey,\n                      Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: Emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.\n                      , BMC Syst. Biol. (2016), submitted."},{"key":"atypb30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/429411"},{"key":"atypb31","unstructured":"U. Wilensky,\n                      Netlogo\n                      , 2009,http:\/\/ccl.northwestern.edu\/netlogo\/."},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-013-1896-4"},{"key":"atypb33","unstructured":"D. Williamson and I. Vernon,\n                      Efficient Uniform Designs for Multi-wave Computer Experiments\n                      , \\newblock preprint,https:\/\/arXiv.org\/abs\/1309.3520, 2013."},{"key":"atypb34","first-page":"1625","author":"Wipf D. P.","year":"2008","journal-title":"Curran Associates"}],"container-title":["SIAM\/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/epubs.siam.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1137\/16M1093008","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T18:27:00Z","timestamp":1787336820000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/epubs.siam.org\/doi\/10.1137\/16M1093008"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,1]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1137\/16M1093008"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1137\/16m1093008","relation":{},"ISSN":["2166-2525"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2166-2525","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,1]]}}}