{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,30]],"date-time":"2026-04-30T06:59:52Z","timestamp":1777532392426,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":6,"publisher":"World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd","issue":"03","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Asia Pac. J. Oper. Res."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, numerous forecasting models have been proposed to project the trajectory of coronavirus infection cases. Most of these forecasts are based on epidemiology models that utilize deterministic differential equations and have resulted in widely varying predictions. We propose a new discrete-time Markov chain model that directly incorporates stochastic behavior and for which parameter estimation is straightforward from available data. Using such data from China\u2019s Hubei province (for which Wuhan is the provincial capital city and which accounted for approximately 82% of the total reported COVID-19 cases in the entire country), the model is shown to be flexible, robust, and accurate. As a result, it has been adopted by the first Shanghai assistance medical team in Wuhan\u2019s Jinyintan Hospital, which was the first designated hospital to take COVID-19 patients in the world. The forecast has been used for preparing medical staff, intensive care unit (ICU) beds, ventilators, and other critical care medical resources and for supporting real-time medical management decisions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1142\/s0217595920500281","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,18]],"date-time":"2020-05-18T09:33:15Z","timestamp":1589794395000},"page":"2050028","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Predictive Modeling for Epidemic Outbreaks: A New Approach and COVID-19 Case Study"],"prefix":"10.1142","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Jian","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CreditWise Technology Co., Ltd., Lujiazui Road No. 166, Mirae Asset Tower Building, 16 Block D, Shanghai 200120, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael C.","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Smith Chair of Management Science Department of Decision, Operations and Information Technologies, Robert H. Smith School of Business & Institute for Systems, Research Van Munching Hall University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wenhong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, 12 Wulumuqi Zhong Road, Shanghai 200040, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Junhua","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shanghai General Hospital, School of Medicine in Shanghai, Jiao Tong University, 86 Wujing Road, Shanghai 200080, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"219","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"S0217595920500281BIB001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.53383\/100253","volume":"21","author":"Chen J","year":"2018","journal-title":"International Real Estate Review"},{"key":"S0217595920500281BIB002","author":"Chen J","year":"2020","journal-title":"OR\/MS Today"},{"key":"S0217595920500281BIB003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"S0217595920500281BIB004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2011.01.007"},{"key":"S0217595920500281BIB006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30260-9"},{"key":"S0217595920500281BIB008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S0217595915500190"}],"container-title":["Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.worldscientific.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1142\/S0217595920500281","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,24]],"date-time":"2022-10-24T00:30:55Z","timestamp":1666571455000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.worldscientific.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1142\/S0217595920500281"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,22]]},"references-count":6,"journal-issue":{"issue":"03","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1142\/S0217595920500281"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1142\/s0217595920500281","relation":{},"ISSN":["0217-5959","1793-7019"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0217-5959","type":"print"},{"value":"1793-7019","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,22]]}}}