{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,4]],"date-time":"2022-04-04T13:01:13Z","timestamp":1649077273190},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt","issue":"04","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Int. J. Unc. Fuzz. Knowl. Based Syst."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> Traditionally the beta distribution has been used due to its ease for computing the mean of tasks, times, cash-flows, etc. because, in this case, the expected value is a weighted average of optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values. One of the critiques of PERT has been the difficulty of introducing the level of confidence that the expert has in his own estimate of the modal value. The Belief in Fuzzy Probability Estimations of Time (BIFPET) model uses human judgement instead of stochastic assumptions to determine the duration of a project. Thus, each supervisor responsible of an activity specifies the three values with their respective probabilities. The manager accepts these probabilities or may extend them within a certain range, according to his belief in these likelihoods or the degree of control exercised by himself in achieving the lower bound of the expected value. However, this approach can be implemented in the PERT methodology. Thus, in this paper, we introduce the confidence that the manager has in the most likely value supplied by the supervisor in order to determine the specific beta distribution to model the variable, showing the advantages of this intuitive procedure which moreover can be easily implemented. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1142\/s0218488505003564","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,8,29]],"date-time":"2005-08-29T09:55:17Z","timestamp":1125309317000},"page":"437-452","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["THE EXPERT'S CONFIDENCE VERSUS FUZZY PROBABILITY IN THE MEAN ACTIVITY TIMES COMPUTATION"],"prefix":"10.1142","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"SALVADOR CRUZ","family":"RAMBAUD","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Direcci\u00f3n y Gesti\u00f3n  de Empresas, University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s\/n, Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"JOS\u00c9 GARC\u00cdA","family":"P\u00c9REZ","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Econom\u00eda Aplicada,  University of Almer\u00eda, La Ca\u00f1ada de San Urbano, s\/n,  Almer\u00eda, 04071, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"219","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"rf1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.32.12.1652"},{"key":"rf2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.33.10.1360"},{"key":"rf3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.33.10.1357"},{"key":"rf4","volume-title":"L'estimation statistique","author":"Dumas de Rauly D.","year":"1968"},{"key":"rf5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1988.132"},{"key":"rf6","first-page":"60","volume":"31","author":"Herrer\u00edas R.","journal-title":"Operations Research Letters"},{"key":"rf7","first-page":"159","volume":"7","author":"Herrer\u00edas R.","journal-title":"Central European Journal of Operations Research"},{"key":"rf8","first-page":"183","volume":"11","author":"Garc\u00eda J.","journal-title":"Central European Journal of Operations Research"},{"key":"rf9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0305-0483(97)00002-9"},{"key":"rf10","first-page":"23","volume":"6","author":"Garc\u00eda J.","journal-title":"Fuzzy Economic Review"},{"key":"rf11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5424\/sjar\/2004021-55"},{"key":"rf12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0923-4748(97)00001-5"},{"key":"rf13","first-page":"71","volume":"10","author":"Garc\u00eda J.","journal-title":"Estudios de Econom\u00eda Aplicada"},{"key":"rf14","first-page":"47","volume":"7","author":"Garc\u00eda J.","journal-title":"Revista Europea de Direcci\u00f3n y Econom\u00eda de la Empresa"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.worldscientific.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1142\/S0218488505003564","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,7]],"date-time":"2019-08-07T17:30:47Z","timestamp":1565199047000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.worldscientific.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1142\/S0218488505003564"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,8]]},"references-count":14,"journal-issue":{"issue":"04","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,21]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1142\/S0218488505003564"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1142\/s0218488505003564","relation":{},"ISSN":["0218-4885","1793-6411"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0218-4885","type":"print"},{"value":"1793-6411","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,8]]}}}