{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,4]],"date-time":"2025-12-04T04:36:44Z","timestamp":1764823004110,"version":"3.46.0"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd","issue":"07","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Advs. Complex Syst."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>El Farol is a bar in Santa Fe, California, that people choose to visit only if they expect it to be uncrowded; otherwise, they prefer to stay home. How do people choose to go or stay home? Our study uncovers a paradox that emerges when applying Brian Arthur\u2019s original \u201cmethod of predictors\u201d to address this problem. Arthur\u2019s method was designed to prevent the convergence of expectations by introducing a diverse set of \u201cpredictors\u201d. However, as agents increasingly rely on more accurate predictors, their expectations tend to synchronize. This explains the widely fluctuating attendance around the optimal average attendance previously noted in the literature. This paradoxical situation is not trivial, as it underscores the limitations of the method of predictors to address the El Farol bar problem as one of congestion of infrastructure. However, if we transition from an objective to a subjective performance metric, Arthur\u2019s method does offer a viable solution to the problem.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1142\/s0219525925500146","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,21]],"date-time":"2025-09-21T14:55:38Z","timestamp":1758466538000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A PARADOX IN BRIAN ARTHUR\u2019S SOLUTION TO HIS EL FAROL BAR PROBLEM"],"prefix":"10.1142","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1193-3423","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"EDGAR","family":"ANDRADE-LOTERO","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Sciences and Engineering, Universidad del Rosario, Calle 12C, No 6-25, 110321 Bogota, Colombia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3778-8156","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"CARLOS E.","family":"ALVAREZ","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Engineering and Sciences, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Av Carlos Lazo 100, Santa Fe, \u00c1lvaro Obreg\u00f3n, 01389 Ciudad de M\u00e9xico, M\u00e9xico"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4271-4944","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"GERM\u00c1N","family":"OBANDO","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Electronics, Universidad de Nari\u00f1o, Calle 18, No 50-02, Pasto 52001, Colombia"}]}],"member":"219","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"S0219525925500146BIB001","first-page":"406","volume":"84","author":"Arthur W. 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