{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T09:39:12Z","timestamp":1775036352748,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd","issue":"04","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["IIS 2324008"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IIS 2324008"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100013864","name":"NOAA Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["A22SEC4810016"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["A22SEC4810016"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100013864","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100013864","name":"NOAA Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NA24NESX405C0006-T1-01"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA24NESX405C0006-T1-01"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100013864","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Adv. Data Sci. Adapt. Data Anal."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Understanding the robustness of a weather forecasting model with respect to input noise or different uncertainties is important in assessing its output reliability, particularly for extreme weather events like hurricanes. In this paper, we test sensitivity and robustness of an artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model: NVIDIA\u2019s FourCastNetv2 (FCNv2). We conduct two experiments designed to assess model output under different levels of injected noise in the model\u2019s initial condition. First, we perturb the initial condition of Hurricane Florence from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset (September 13\u201316, 2018) with varying amounts of Gaussian noise and examine the impact on predicted trajectories and forecasted storm intensity. Second, we start FCNv2 with fully random initial conditions and observe how the model responds to nonsensical inputs. Our results indicate that FCNv2 accurately preserves hurricane features under low to moderate noise injection. Even under high levels of noise, the model maintains the general storm trajectory and structure, although positional accuracy begins to degrade. FCNv2 consistently underestimates storm intensity and persistence across all levels of injected noise. With full random initial conditions, the model generates smooth and cohesive forecasts after a few timesteps, implying the model\u2019s tendency toward stable, smoothed outputs. Our approach is simple and portable to other data-driven AI weather forecasting models.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1142\/s2424922x2650004x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T14:48:01Z","timestamp":1772203681000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Robustness Test for AI Forecasting of Hurricane Florence Using FourCastNetv2 and Random Perturbations of the Initial Condition"],"prefix":"10.1142","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-6074-7867","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adam","family":"Lizerbram","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-1607-4122","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shane","family":"Stevenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-7288-5047","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Iman","family":"Khadir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-0858-6036","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew","family":"Tu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4535-4684","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel S. P.","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive San Diego, California 92182, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"219","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"S2424922X2650004XBIB001","unstructured":"Bi, K., Xie, L., Zhang, H., Chen, X., Gu, X. and Tian, Q. (2022). Pangu-weather: A 3D high-resolution model for fast and accurate global weather forecast. https:\/\/ doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2211.02556."},{"key":"S2424922X2650004XBIB002","unstructured":"Bonev, B., Kurth, T., Hundt, C., Pathak, J., Baust, M., Kashinath, K. and Anandkumar, A. (2023). 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Democracy of AI numerical weather models: An example of global forecasting with FourCastNetv2 made by a university research lab using GPU. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2504.17028."},{"key":"S2424922X2650004XBIB011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lam, R., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Willson, M., Wirnsberger, P., Fortunato, M., Alet, F., Ravuri, S., Ewalds, T., Eaton-Rosen, Z., Hu, W., Merose, A., Hoyer, S., Holland, G., Vinyals, O., Stott, J., Pritzel, A., Mohamed, S. and Battaglia, P. (2023). GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2212.12794.","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adi2336"},{"key":"S2424922X2650004XBIB012","unstructured":"Lang, S., Alexe, M., Chantry, M., Dramsch, J., Pinault, F., Raoult, B., Clare, M. C. A., Lessig, C., Maier-Gerber, M., Magnusson, L., Bouall\u00e8gue, Z. B., Nemesio, A. P., Dueben, P. D., Brown, A., Pappenberger, F. and Rabier, F. (2024). 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