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This study pioneers an in-depth investigation into the instability pattern uncertainty of reservoir accumulation landslides, a critical yet understudied aspect of landslide risk, exemplified by the Baijiabao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. A stochastic finite element limit analysis, integrating comprehensive field investigations and laboratory experiments, was conducted to model the spatial variable shear strength in the sliding mass and slip zone. Employing the Gaussian mixture model expectation maximization algorithm, the risk associated with instability patterns was identified and quantified, revealing a significant influence of seismic activity over water level on failure probabilities. 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