{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T23:45:41Z","timestamp":1783640741954,"version":"3.55.0"},"publisher-location":"Republic and Canton of Geneva, Switzerland","reference-count":63,"publisher":"International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,11]],"date-time":"2016-04-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1460332800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.acm.org\/publications\/policies\/copyright_policy#Background"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dl.acm.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,11]]},"DOI":"10.1145\/2872427.2883001","type":"proceedings-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]],"date-time":"2017-01-23T20:35:52Z","timestamp":1485203752000},"page":"683-694","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":79,"title":["Exploring Limits to Prediction in Complex Social Systems"],"prefix":"10.1145","author":[{"given":"Travis","family":"Martin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jake M.","family":"Hofman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, NYC, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amit","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, NYC, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ashton","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, NYC, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Duncan J.","family":"Watts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, NYC, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"320","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1157679"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/WI-IAT.2010.63"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1935826.1935845"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1040.0300"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature14956"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_6_1","volume-title":"Contagious: Why things catch on","author":"Berger J.","year":"2013","unstructured":"J. Berger . Contagious: Why things catch on . Simon and Schuster , 2013 . J. Berger. Contagious: Why things catch on. Simon and Schuster, 2013."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcps.2011.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5555\/944919.944937"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jocs.2010.12.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2566486.2567997"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-4932.2012.00809.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0040013"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_13_1","volume-title":"The Predictioneer's Game: Using the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future","author":"De Mesquita B. B.","year":"2010","unstructured":"B. B. De Mesquita . The Predictioneer's Game: Using the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future . Random House Incorporated , 2010 . B. B. De Mesquita. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future. Random House Incorporated, 2010."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_14_1","volume-title":"Hollywood economics: How extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry","author":"Vany A. De","year":"2004","unstructured":"A. De Vany . Hollywood economics: How extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry . Routledge , 2004 . A. De Vany. Hollywood economics: How extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry. Routledge, 2004."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(2004)061%3C2425:PAITPI%3E2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.149.3683.510"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_17_1","volume-title":"The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine will Remake our World","author":"Domingos P.","year":"2015","unstructured":"P. Domingos . The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine will Remake our World . BasicBooks , 2015 . P. Domingos. The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine will Remake our World. BasicBooks, 2015."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_18_1","volume-title":"The winner-take-all society: Why the few at the top get so much more than the rest of us","author":"Frank R. H.","year":"2010","unstructured":"R. H. Frank and P. J. Cook . The winner-take-all society: Why the few at the top get so much more than the rest of us . Random House , 2010 . R. H. Frank and P. J. Cook. The winner-take-all society: Why the few at the top get so much more than the rest of us. Random House, 2010."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_19_1","volume-title":"Anchor","author":"Friedman G.","year":"2010","unstructured":"G. Friedman . The next 100 years : a forecast for the 21st century . Anchor , 2010 . G. Friedman. The next 100 years: a forecast for the 21st century. Anchor, 2010."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_20_1","volume-title":"McClelland & Stewart Limited","author":"Gardner D.","year":"2010","unstructured":"D. Gardner . Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway . McClelland & Stewart Limited , 2010 . D. Gardner. Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway. McClelland & Stewart Limited, 2010."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07634"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2015.2158"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1005962107"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1807342.1807400"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09298215.2014.881888"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/SocialCom-PASSAT.2012.129"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.91.042811"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1964858.1964870"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0308344101"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_30_1","volume-title":"Skew distributions and the sizes of business firms","author":"Ijiri Y.","year":"1977","unstructured":"Y. Ijiri and H. A. Simon . Skew distributions and the sizes of business firms , volume 24 . North Holland , 1977 . Y. Ijiri and H. A. Simon. Skew distributions and the sizes of business firms, volume 24. North Holland, 1977."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/WISM.2009.15"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2487788.2488017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/956750.956769"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1248506"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1772690.1772754"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_36_1","volume-title":"Ninth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media","author":"Maity S. K.","year":"2015","unstructured":"S. K. Maity , A. Gupta , P. Goyal , and A. Mukherjee . A stratified learning approach for predicting the popularity of Twitter idioms . In Ninth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media , 2015 . S. K. Maity, A. Gupta, P. Goyal, and A. Mukherjee. A stratified learning approach for predicting the popularity of Twitter idioms. In Ninth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 2015."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_37_1","volume-title":"Untangling skill and luck in business, sports, and investing","author":"Mauboussin M. J.","year":"2012","unstructured":"M. J. Mauboussin . The success equation : Untangling skill and luck in business, sports, and investing . Harvard Business Press , 2012 . M. J. Mauboussin. The success equation: Untangling skill and luck in business, sports, and investing. Harvard Business Press, 2012."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_38_1","unstructured":"A. K. McCallum. Mallet: A machine learning for language toolkit. http:\/\/mallet.cs.umass.edu 2002.  A. K. McCallum. Mallet: A machine learning for language toolkit. http:\/\/mallet.cs.umass.edu 2002."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_39_1","volume-title":"The future of everything: The science of prediction","author":"Orrell D.","year":"2008","unstructured":"D. Orrell . The future of everything: The science of prediction . BasicBooks , 2008 . D. Orrell. The future of everything: The science of prediction. BasicBooks, 2008."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_40_1","volume-title":"Fiasco: A History of Hollywood's Iconic Flops","author":"Parish J. R.","year":"2006","unstructured":"J. R. Parish . Fiasco: A History of Hollywood's Iconic Flops . Wiley , 2006 . J. R. Parish. Fiasco: A History of Hollywood's Iconic Flops. Wiley, 2006."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_41_1","volume-title":"ICWSM","author":"Petrovic S.","year":"2011","unstructured":"S. Petrovic , M. Osborne , and V. Lavrenko . RT to win! predicting message propagation in twitter . In ICWSM , 2011 . S. Petrovic, M. Osborne, and V. Lavrenko. RT to win! predicting message propagation in twitter. In ICWSM, 2011."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2433396.2433443"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/593098"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1963405.1963503"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_45_1","volume-title":"Seventh International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media","author":"Romero D. M.","year":"2013","unstructured":"D. M. Romero , C. Tan , and J. Ugander . On the interplay between social and topical structure . In Seventh International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media , 2013 . D. M. Romero, C. Tan, and J. Ugander. On the interplay between social and topical structure. In Seventh International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 2013."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1121066"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_47_1","volume-title":"Free Press","author":"Schnaars S. P.","year":"1989","unstructured":"S. P. Schnaars . Megamistakes. Free Press ; Collier Macmillan , 1989 . S. P. Schnaars. Megamistakes. Free Press; Collier Macmillan, 1989."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_48_1","volume-title":"The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions","author":"Sherden W. A.","year":"1998","unstructured":"W. A. Sherden . The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions . John Wiley & Sons , 1998 . W. A. Sherden. The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions. John Wiley & Sons, 1998."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_49_1","unstructured":"B. Shulman A. Sharma and D. Cosley. Predictability of item popularity: Gaps between prediction and understanding. Unpublished.  B. Shulman A. Sharma and D. Cosley. Predictability of item popularity: Gaps between prediction and understanding. Unpublished."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09332480.2000.10542216"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2675133.2675290"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_52_1","volume-title":"Anchor","author":"Surowiecki J.","year":"2005","unstructured":"J. Surowiecki . The wisdom of crowds . Anchor , 2005 . J. Surowiecki. The wisdom of crowds. Anchor, 2005."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1787234.1787254"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_54_1","volume-title":"The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable","author":"Taleb N. N.","year":"2010","unstructured":"N. N. Taleb . The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable . Random House , 2010 . N. N. Taleb. The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House, 2010."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_55_1","volume-title":"Princeton University Press","author":"Tetlock P.","year":"2005","unstructured":"P. Tetlock . Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know ? Princeton University Press , 2005 . P. Tetlock. Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton University Press, 2005."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_56_1","volume-title":"Crown","author":"Tetlock P. E.","year":"2015","unstructured":"P. E. Tetlock and D. Gardner . Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction . Crown , 2015 . P. E. Tetlock and D. Gardner. Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Crown, 2015."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_57_1","volume-title":"Crown Business","author":"Watts D. J.","year":"2011","unstructured":"D. J. Watts . Everything is obvious:* Once you know the answer . Crown Business , 2011 . D. J. Watts. Everything is obvious:* Once you know the answer. Crown Business, 2011."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4591061"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep02522"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_60_1","volume-title":"Eighth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media","author":"Weng L.","year":"2014","unstructured":"L. Weng , F. Menczer , and Y.-Y. Ahn . Predicting successful memes using network and community structure . In Eighth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media , 2014 . L. Weng, F. Menczer, and Y.-Y. Ahn. Predicting successful memes using network and community structure. In Eighth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, 2014."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1963405.1963504"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ICDM.2015.79"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_1_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2783258.2783401"}],"event":{"name":"WWW '16: 25th International World Wide Web Conference","location":"Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec Canada","acronym":"WWW '16","sponsor":["IW3C2 International World Wide Web Conference Committee","SIGWEB ACM Special Interest Group on Hypertext, Hypermedia, and Web"]},"container-title":["Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on World Wide Web"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/2872427.2883001","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1145\/2872427.2883001","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,18]],"date-time":"2025-06-18T04:39:05Z","timestamp":1750221545000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/2872427.2883001"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,11]]},"references-count":63,"alternative-id":["10.1145\/2872427.2883001","10.5555\/2872427"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/2872427.2883001","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2016-04-11","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}