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Techniques such as Measurement-Based Probabilistic Timing Analysis (MBPTA) have emerged that estimate WCET bounds exceeded only with arbitrarily low probabilities (i.e., pWCETs) through Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach for applying EVT involves adjusting a tail-shaped distribution, e.g., Generalized Pareto (GP) or Exponential, to the values that exceed a carefully selected high threshold. Several works suggest that GP should be used within POT for best representing different tail shapes, while others consider the Exponential model more adequate for providing upper bounds with increased reliability. This work presents empirical reliability and tightness evaluations of the pWCET estimates yielded by the GP and Exponential models while applying MBPTA through the POT approach. It mainly provides counter-evidence to the GP model reliability and evidence of the Exponential model adequacy in this context.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1145\/3185154","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,16]],"date-time":"2018-03-16T12:49:41Z","timestamp":1521204581000},"page":"1-27","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["On the Reliability and Tightness of GP and Exponential Models for Probabilistic WCET Estimation"],"prefix":"10.1145","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Lu\u00eds Fernando","family":"Arcaro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal University of Santa Catarina, Trindade, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Karila Palma","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal University of Santa Catarina, Trindade, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"R\u00f4mulo Silva De","family":"Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal University of Santa Catarina, Trindade, Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"320","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ECRTS.2014.16"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/SIES.2015.7185039"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3065924"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ECRTS.2014.33"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jan Beirlant Yuri Goegebeur Johan Segers and Jozef Teugels. 2004. 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