{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]],"date-time":"2026-01-14T16:37:01Z","timestamp":1768408621829,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,31]],"date-time":"2020-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1598832000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.acm.org\/publications\/policies\/copyright_policy#Background"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012642","name":"Mozilla Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Mozilla Research Grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Mozilla Research Grant"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012642","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006785","name":"Google","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Google Research Fellowship at the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Google Research Fellowship at the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006785","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004801","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CNS-1254169, CNS-1850187"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CNS-1254169, CNS-1850187"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004801","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000893","name":"Simons Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Simons Award for Graduate Students in Theoretical Computer Science"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Simons Award for Graduate Students in Theoretical Computer Science"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000893","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dl.acm.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["ACM Trans. Econ. Comput."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,31]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            We consider the design of\n            <jats:italic>private prediction markets<\/jats:italic>\n            , financial markets designed to elicit predictions about uncertain events without revealing too much information about market participants\u2019 actions or beliefs. Our goal is to design market mechanisms in which participants\u2019 trades or wagers influence the market\u2019s behavior in a way that leads to accurate predictions, yet no single participant has too much influence over what others are able to observe. We study the possibilities and limitations of such mechanisms using tools from differential privacy. We begin by designing a private one-shot wagering mechanism in which bettors specify a belief about the likelihood of a future event and a corresponding monetary wager. Wagers are redistributed among bettors in a way that more highly rewards those with accurate predictions. We provide a class of wagering mechanisms that are guaranteed to satisfy truthfulness, budget balance on expectation, and other desirable properties while additionally guaranteeing \u03b5-joint differential privacy in the bettors\u2019 reported beliefs, and analyze the trade-off between the achievable level of privacy and the sensitivity of a bettor\u2019s payment to her own report. We then ask whether it is possible to obtain privacy in dynamic prediction markets, focusing our attention on the popular cost-function framework in which securities with payments linked to future events are bought and sold by an automated market maker. We show that under general conditions, it is impossible for such a market maker to simultaneously achieve bounded worst-case loss and \u03b5-differential privacy without allowing the privacy guarantee to degrade extremely quickly as the number of trades grows (at least logarithmically in number of trades), making such markets impractical in settings in which privacy is valued. We conclude by suggesting several avenues for potentially circumventing this lower bound.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1145\/3412348","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,25]],"date-time":"2020-09-25T18:10:28Z","timestamp":1601057428000},"page":"1-24","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["The Possibilities and Limitations of Private Prediction Markets"],"prefix":"10.1145","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Rachel","family":"Cummings","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David M.","family":"Pennock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, New York, NY"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jennifer Wortman","family":"Vaughan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Microsoft Research, New York, NY"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"320","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2465769.2465777"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5750\/jpm.v3i1.451"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","unstructured":"J. E. Berg R. Forsythe F. D. Nelson and T. A. Rietz. 2001. Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research. In Handbook of Experimental Economic Results C. A. Plott and V. Smith (Eds.).  J. E. Berg R. Forsythe F. D. Nelson and T. A. Rietz. 2001. Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research. In Handbook of Experimental Economic Results C. A. Plott and V. Smith (Eds.)."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","first-page":"26","article-title":"Private and continual release of statistics","volume":"14","author":"Hubert Chan T.-H.","year":"2011","unstructured":"T.-H. Hubert Chan , Elaine Shi , and Dawn Song . 2011 . Private and continual release of statistics . ACM Trans. Info. Syst. Secur. 14 , 3 (2011), 26 . T.-H. Hubert Chan, Elaine Shi, and Dawn Song. 2011. Private and continual release of statistics. ACM Trans. Info. Syst. Secur. 14, 3 (2011), 26.","journal-title":"ACM Trans. Info. Syst. Secur."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","unstructured":"R. Charette. 2007. An internal futures market. Info. Manage. (2007).  R. Charette. 2007. An internal futures market. Info. Manage. (2007)."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2600057.2602876"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.","author":"Chen Y.","unstructured":"Y. Chen and D. M. Pennock . 2007. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers . In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Y. Chen and D. M. Pennock. 2007. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers. In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdv014"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-48995-6_21"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/11681878_14"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 42nd ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing.","author":"Dwork C.","unstructured":"C. Dwork , M. Naor , T. Pitassi , and G. N. Rothblum . 2010. Differential privacy under continual observation . In Proceedings of the 42nd ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing. C. Dwork, M. Naor, T. Pitassi, and G. N. Rothblum. 2010. Differential privacy under continual observation. In Proceedings of the 42nd ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1561\/0400000042"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5555\/3327546.3327705"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0022-1082.155346"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2600057.2602902"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214506000001437"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01907.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1022058209073"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2591796.2591826"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/2554797.2554834"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jet.2014.03.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_23_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce.","author":"Lambert N. S.","unstructured":"N. S. Lambert , J. Langford , J. Wortman , Y. Chen , D. Reeves , Y. Shoham , and D. M. Pennock . 2008. Self-financed wagering mechanisms for forecasting . In Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce. N. S. Lambert, J. Langford, J. Wortman, Y. Chen, D. Reeves, Y. Shoham, and D. M. Pennock. 2008. Self-financed wagering mechanisms for forecasting. In Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/1559845.1559850"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.291.5506.987"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_26_1","unstructured":"C. Plott and K.-Y. Chen. 2002. Information aggregation mechanisms: Concept design and field implementation. Cal Tech Social Science Working Paper 1131.  C. Plott and K.-Y. Chen. 2002. Information aggregation mechanisms: Concept design and field implementation. Cal Tech Social Science Working Paper 1131."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/510427"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_28_1","first-page":"861","article-title":"Orange juice and weather","volume":"74","author":"Roll R.","year":"1984","unstructured":"R. Roll . 1984 . Orange juice and weather . Amer. Econ. Rev. 74 , 5 (1984), 861 -- 880 . R. Roll. 1984. Orange juice and weather. Amer. Econ. Rev. 74, 5 (1984), 861--880.","journal-title":"Amer. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1971.10482346"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.2.2.161"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_31_1","volume-title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vo. 28","author":"Waggoner Bo","unstructured":"Bo Waggoner , Rafael Frongillo , and Jacob Abernethy . 2015. A market framework for eliciting private data . In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vo. 28 , MIT Press . Bo Waggoner, Rafael Frongillo, and Jacob Abernethy. 2015. A market framework for eliciting private data. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vo. 28, MIT Press."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007799303256"}],"container-title":["ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/3412348","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1145\/3412348","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,17]],"date-time":"2025-06-17T21:25:01Z","timestamp":1750195501000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/3412348"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,31]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,31]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1145\/3412348"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3412348","relation":{},"ISSN":["2167-8375","2167-8383"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2167-8375","type":"print"},{"value":"2167-8383","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2016-12-01","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-08-01","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-09-25","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}