{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,18]],"date-time":"2025-06-18T04:22:01Z","timestamp":1750220521138,"version":"3.41.0"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)","issue":"October","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]],"date-time":"2020-10-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603929600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.acm.org\/publications\/policies\/copyright_policy#Background"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["dl.acm.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ubiquity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Governments across the world are formulating and implementing medical, social, economic and other policies to manage the COVID-19 pandemic and protect their citizens. Many governments claim that their policies follow the best available scientific advice. Much of that advice comes from computational modeling. Two of the main types of model are presented: the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model developed by Kermack and McKendrick in the 1920s and the more recent Agent Based Models. The SIR model gives a good intuition of how epidemics spread; including how mass vaccination can contain them. It is less useful than Agent Based Modeling for investigating the effects of policies such as social distancing, self-isolation, wearing facemasks, and test-trace-isolate.<\/jats:p>\n          <jats:p>Politicians and the public have been perplexed to observe the lack of consensus in the scientific community and there being no single 'best science' to follow. The outcome of computational models depends on the assumptions made and the data used. Different assumptions will lead to different computational outcomes, especially when the available data are so poor. This leads some commentators to argue that the models are wrong and dangerous. Some may be, but computational modeling is one of the few ways available to explore and try to understand the space of possible futures. This lack of certainty means that computational modeling must be seen as just one of many inputs into the political decision making process. Politicians must balance all the competing inputs and make timely decisions based on their conclusions---be they right or wrong. In the same way that democracy is the least worst form of government, computational modeling may be the least worst way of trying to understand the future for policy making.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1145\/3427634","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]],"date-time":"2020-10-29T22:09:40Z","timestamp":1604009380000},"page":"1-14","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["COVID-19 and computation for policy"],"prefix":"10.1145","volume":"2020","author":[{"given":"Jeffrey","family":"Johnson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Denning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Kemal","family":"Delic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jane","family":"Bromley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"320","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.25561\/77735"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","volume-title":"World Health Organization","author":"Director-General's","year":"2020","unstructured":"WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 -- 11 March 2020 . World Health Organization , March 11, 2020 . WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 -- 11 March 2020. World Health Organization, March 11, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","volume-title":"World Health Organization","author":"World Health Authority","year":"2020","unstructured":"World Health Authority 'Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -73. World Health Organization . April 2, 2020 . World Health Authority 'Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report-73. World Health Organization. April 2, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","volume-title":"New York Times.","author":"Horowitz J.","year":"2020","unstructured":"Horowitz , J. Italy's health care system groans under coronavirus a warning to the world . New York Times. March 12, 2020 . Horowitz, J. Italy's health care system groans under coronavirus a warning to the world. New York Times. March 12, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","volume-title":"Hansard","volume":"673","author":"House","year":"2020","unstructured":"House of Commons. Statement by The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care . Hansard , Volume 673 . U.K. Parliament. March 11, 2020 . House of Commons. Statement by The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care. Hansard, Volume 673. U.K. Parliament. March 11, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","volume-title":"Top scientists set up 'shadow' SAGE committee to advise government amid concerns over political interference The Independent Newspaper","author":"Stone J.","year":"2020","unstructured":"Stone , J. Top scientists set up 'shadow' SAGE committee to advise government amid concerns over political interference The Independent Newspaper . May 3, 2020 . Stone, J. Top scientists set up 'shadow' SAGE committee to advise government amid concerns over political interference The Independent Newspaper. May 3, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","volume-title":"firms slash more than 12,000 jobs in two days","author":"News U.K.","year":"2020","unstructured":"BBC News . Coronavirus: U.K. firms slash more than 12,000 jobs in two days . July 1, 2020 , BBC News. Coronavirus: U.K. firms slash more than 12,000 jobs in two days. July 1, 2020,"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","volume-title":"failed to stockpile crucial PPE","author":"News U.K.","year":"2020","unstructured":"BBC News . Coronavirus: U.K. failed to stockpile crucial PPE . April 28, 2020 . BBC News. Coronavirus: U.K. failed to stockpile crucial PPE. April 28, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cplx.6130010405"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1140\/epjst\/e2012-01694-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","first-page":"772","article-title":"contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics","volume":"115","author":"Kermack W. O.","year":"1927","unstructured":"Kermack , W. O. and McKendrick , A. G.A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics . Proc. R. Soc. A. 115 , 772 ( 1927 ). Kermack, W. O. and McKendrick, A. G.A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. A. 115, 772 (1927).","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. A."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","volume-title":"Infectious Diseases Of Humans: Dynamics and control","author":"Anderson R. M.","year":"1992","unstructured":"Anderson , R. M. and May , R. M . Infectious Diseases Of Humans: Dynamics and control . Oxford University Press , 1992 . Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. Infectious Diseases Of Humans: Dynamics and control. Oxford University Press, 1992."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.14.3.G79"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","volume-title":"The Kermack-McKendrick SIR epidemic model","author":"FutureLearn","year":"2020","unstructured":"FutureLearn . Pandemics, Modelling , and Policy, Step 1.7. The Kermack-McKendrick SIR epidemic model . April 2020 . FutureLearn. Pandemics, Modelling, and Policy, Step 1.7. The Kermack-McKendrick SIR epidemic model. April 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","volume-title":"The failure of expert predictions and models","author":"Berenson A.","year":"2020","unstructured":"Berenson , A. The failure of expert predictions and models . Hillsdale College . April 28, 2020 Berenson, A. The failure of expert predictions and models. Hillsdale College. April 28, 2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_1","volume-title":"STAT.","author":"Begly S.","year":"2020","unstructured":"Begly , S. Influential COVID-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say . STAT. April 17, 2020 . Begly, S. Influential COVID-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say. STAT. April 17, 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_17_1","unstructured":"Is England ending its lockdown too soon? The Economist. June 4 2020.  Is England ending its lockdown too soon? The Economist. June 4 2020."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_18_1","volume-title":"seeing second wave, says Boris Johnson","author":"News U.K.","year":"2020","unstructured":"BBC News . COVID: U.K. seeing second wave, says Boris Johnson . September 18, 2020 BBC News. COVID: U.K. seeing second wave, says Boris Johnson. September 18, 2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_19_1","volume-title":"TED Talk.","author":"Gates B.","year":"2015","unstructured":"Gates , B. The next outbreak. We're not ready . TED Talk. March 15, 2015 . Gates, B. The next outbreak. We're not ready. TED Talk. March 15, 2015."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-020-02009-w"}],"container-title":["Ubiquity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/3427634","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1145\/3427634","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,17]],"date-time":"2025-06-17T21:24:40Z","timestamp":1750195480000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/10.1145\/3427634"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"October","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1145\/3427634"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3427634","relation":{},"ISSN":["1530-2180"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1530-2180"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-10-29","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}