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ACM Hum.-Comput. Interact."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Users trust algorithms more when they can predict the algorithms\u2019 behavior. Simple algorithms trivially yield predictively accurate mental models, but modern AI algorithms have often been assumed too complex for people to build predictive mental models, especially in the social media domain. In this paper, we describe conditions under which even complex algorithms can yield predictive mental models, opening up opportunities for a broader set of human-centered algorithms. We theorize that users will form an accurate predictive mental model of an algorithm\u2019s behavior if and only if the algorithm simultaneously satisfies three criteria: (1)\u00a0cognitive availability of the underlying concepts being modeled, (2)\u00a0concept compactness (does it form a single cognitive construct?), and (3)\u00a0high alignment between the person\u2019s and algorithm\u2019s execution of the concept. We evaluate this theory through a pre-registered experiment (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">N<\/jats:italic>\n                    = 1250) where users predict behavior of 25 social media feed ranking algorithms that vary on these criteria. We find that even complex (e.g., LLM-based) algorithms enjoy accurate prediction rates when they meet all criteria, and even simple (e.g., basic term count) algorithms fail to be predictable when a single criterion fails. We also find that these criteria determine outcomes beyond prediction accuracy, such as which mental models users deploy to make their predictions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1145\/3788067","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]],"date-time":"2026-05-20T15:29:14Z","timestamp":1779290954000},"page":"1-41","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["People Can Accurately Predict Behavior of Complex Algorithms That Are Available, Compact, and Aligned CSCW031"],"prefix":"10.1145","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5649-0286","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lindsay","family":"Popowski","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6649-6905","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helena","family":"Vasconcelos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-3739-1112","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ignacio Javier","family":"Fernandez Heinsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-9137-070X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chijioke","family":"Mgbahurike","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8114-6793","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ralf","family":"Herbrich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hasso-Plattner-Institute","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5367-2677","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeff","family":"Hancock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8020-9434","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael S.","family":"Bernstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford, USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"320","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3313831.3376615"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Fatemeh Alizadeh Dennis Lawo Gunnar Stevens Douglas Zytko and Motahhare Eslami. 2024. 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