{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]],"date-time":"2025-10-31T22:00:29Z","timestamp":1761948029916,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":13,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,1]],"date-time":"2014-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1388534400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013286","name":"Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013286","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003995","name":"Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51308177","51178158","20120111120021","1408085MG137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003995","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2014\/103196","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,12,31]],"date-time":"2014-12-31T21:02:13Z","timestamp":1420059733000},"page":"1-7","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2014","author":[{"given":"Feng","family":"Zhong-xiang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lu","family":"Shi-sheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhang","family":"Wei-hua","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhang","family":"Nan-nan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","reference":[{"key":"1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-4575(72)90029-2"},{"issue":"12","key":"2","first-page":"635","volume":"28","year":"1987","journal-title":"Traffic Engineering and Control"},{"key":"3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-4575(94)90038-8"},{"issue":"6","key":"4","first-page":"132","volume":"27","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development"},{"issue":"6","key":"5","first-page":"64","volume":"24","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Chang'an University"},{"issue":"4","key":"6","first-page":"98","volume":"20","year":"2003","journal-title":"Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development"},{"issue":"9","key":"7","first-page":"15","volume":"20","year":"2010","journal-title":"China Safety Science Journal"},{"issue":"12","key":"8","first-page":"1295","volume":"33","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of Beijing University of Technology"},{"issue":"31","key":"9","first-page":"11","volume":"48","year":"2012","journal-title":"Computer Engineering and Applications"},{"issue":"1","key":"10","first-page":"122","volume":"6","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering"},{"key":"11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3963\/j.issn.1006-2823.2011.03.049"},{"year":"2010","key":"12"},{"year":"1967","key":"13"}],"container-title":["Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cin\/2014\/103196.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cin\/2014\/103196.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cin\/2014\/103196.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,14]],"date-time":"2020-05-14T19:58:41Z","timestamp":1589486321000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.hindawi.com\/journals\/cin\/2014\/103196\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014]]},"references-count":13,"alternative-id":["103196","103196"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2014\/103196","relation":{},"ISSN":["1687-5265","1687-5273"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"1687-5265"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1687-5273"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014]]}}}