{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T08:52:10Z","timestamp":1790758330832,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,1,1]],"date-time":"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1420070400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001501","name":"University Grants Commission","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SR\/S4\/MS: 396\/10"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SR\/S4\/MS: 396\/10"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001501","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001409","name":"Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SR\/S4\/MS: 396\/10"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SR\/S4\/MS: 396\/10"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001409","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015]]},"abstract":"<jats:p><jats:italic>Background<\/jats:italic>. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns.<jats:italic>Method<\/jats:italic>. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M1\"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn fontstyle=\"italic\">0<\/mml:mn><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msub><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:math>), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M2\"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn fontstyle=\"italic\">0<\/mml:mn><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msub><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:math>from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A\/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase.<jats:italic>Result<\/jats:italic>. The estimated<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M3\"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn fontstyle=\"italic\">0<\/mml:mn><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msub><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:math>with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M4\"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn fontstyle=\"italic\">0<\/mml:mn><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msub><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:math>.<jats:italic>Conclusion<\/jats:italic>. Basic reproduction number<mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" id=\"M5\"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn fontstyle=\"italic\">0<\/mml:mn><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msub><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:math>provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2015\/256319","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,15]],"date-time":"2015-02-15T16:02:38Z","timestamp":1424016158000},"page":"1-7","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2015","author":[{"given":"Adiveppa S.","family":"Kadi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shivakumari R.","family":"Avaradi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","reference":[{"key":"4","year":"2010"},{"key":"5","year":"2009"},{"key":"6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/bf00178324"},{"key":"7","year":"1991"},{"key":"8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/096228029300200103"},{"issue":"8","key":"10","volume":"101","year":"2011","journal-title":"Current Science"},{"key":"11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tpb.2006.03.003"},{"key":"12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177731708"},{"key":"14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(95)00053-4"},{"key":"15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9574.1996.tb01482.x"},{"key":"16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-13159-6"},{"key":"17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3754"},{"key":"18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.plrev.2007.12.001"},{"key":"19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2006.10.010"},{"key":"20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh255"},{"key":"21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2002.2191"},{"key":"22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph7010291"},{"key":"23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-4145-2"},{"key":"24","series-title":"Academic Class Notes","year":"1992"},{"key":"25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2004.1490"},{"key":"27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000349"},{"key":"28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/ede.0b013e31819d1092"},{"key":"29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa0905498"},{"key":"30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04017"},{"key":"31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2012.03.029"},{"key":"32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1177373"},{"key":"33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.rrn1130"},{"key":"34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x"},{"key":"35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.01.002"},{"key":"36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/656740"},{"key":"37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1103002108"},{"key":"38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1742-4682-4-20"}],"container-title":["Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cmmm\/2015\/256319.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cmmm\/2015\/256319.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/cmmm\/2015\/256319.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,27]],"date-time":"2016-07-27T08:53:36Z","timestamp":1469609616000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.hindawi.com\/journals\/cmmm\/2015\/256319\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015]]},"references-count":33,"alternative-id":["256319","256319"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2015\/256319","relation":{},"ISSN":["1748-670X","1748-6718"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1748-670X","type":"print"},{"value":"1748-6718","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015]]}}}