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In recent years, many investigations have been made. However, they are not sufficient. To improve the comprehensiveness of prediction, in this paper, we quantitatively convert attack threat into security situation. Actually, two algorithms are proposed, namely, attack prediction algorithm using dynamic Bayesian attack graph and security situation quantification algorithm based on attack prediction. The first algorithm aims to provide more abundant information of future attack behaviors by simulating incremental network penetration. Through timely evaluating the attack capacity of intruder and defense strategies of defender, the likely attack goal, path, and probability and time-cost are predicted dynamically along with the ongoing security events. Furthermore, in combination with the common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) metric and network assets information, the second algorithm quantifies the concealed attack threat into the surfaced security risk from two levels: host and network. Examples show that our method is feasible and flexible for the attack-defense adversarial network environment, which benefits the administrator to infer the security situation in advance and prerepair the critical compromised hosts to maintain normal network communication.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2017\/3407642","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]],"date-time":"2017-07-03T21:03:12Z","timestamp":1499115792000},"page":"1-19","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Quantitative Method for Network Security Situation Based on Attack Prediction"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2017","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4888-6368","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hao","family":"Hu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhengzhou Information Science and Technology Institute, Zhengzhou 450001, China"},{"name":"Henan Key Laboratory of Information Security, Zhengzhou 450001, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hongqi","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhengzhou Information Science and Technology Institute, Zhengzhou 450001, China"},{"name":"Henan Key Laboratory of Information Security, Zhengzhou 450001, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuling","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Trusted Computing and Information Assurance Laboratory, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Information Network Security, Third Research Institute, Ministry of Public Security, Shanghai 200031, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yongwei","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhengzhou Information Science and Technology Institute, Zhengzhou 450001, China"},{"name":"Henan Key Laboratory of Information Security, Zhengzhou 450001, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","reference":[{"key":"1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TIFS.2008.924605"},{"key":"3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2016.06.130"},{"key":"4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cose.2006.10.002"},{"issue":"4","key":"6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1145\/332051.332079","volume":"43","year":"2000","journal-title":"Communications of the ACM"},{"key":"7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pmcj.2011.01.004"},{"key":"8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sres.2179"},{"key":"9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1504\/IJEP.2013.054030"},{"issue":"5","key":"10","first-page":"1548","volume":"9","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of information and computational science"},{"issue":"3","key":"12","first-page":"291","volume":"13","year":"2007","journal-title":"High Technology Letters"},{"issue":"12b","key":"14","first-page":"151","volume":"18","year":"2014","journal-title":"Computer Modelling & New Technologies"},{"key":"15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.comnet.2006.05.008"},{"key":"16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sec.1190"},{"key":"18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cose.2015.11.005"},{"key":"20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRD.2009.2033930"},{"key":"23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sec.535"},{"key":"24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10207-004-0060-x"},{"issue":"1","key":"25","first-page":"482","volume":"15","year":"2013","journal-title":"Game Theory for Network Security Communications surveys tutorials"},{"key":"27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cor.2016.05.005"}],"container-title":["Security and Communication Networks"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/scn\/2017\/3407642.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/scn\/2017\/3407642.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/scn\/2017\/3407642.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,18]],"date-time":"2020-05-18T01:38:38Z","timestamp":1589765918000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.hindawi.com\/journals\/scn\/2017\/3407642\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017]]},"references-count":18,"alternative-id":["3407642","3407642"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2017\/3407642","relation":{},"ISSN":["1939-0114","1939-0122"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1939-0114","type":"print"},{"value":"1939-0122","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017]]}}}