{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,21]],"date-time":"2025-10-21T15:29:38Z","timestamp":1761060578872,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,15]],"date-time":"2018-05-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1526342400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":134,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CNS152269"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CNS152269"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000181","name":"Air Force Office of Scientific Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["FA9550-16-1-0247"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FA9550-16-1-0247"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000181","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Complexity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Society faces a fundamental global problem of understanding which individuals are currently developing strong support for some extremist entity such as ISIS (Islamic State), even if they never end up doing anything in the real world. The importance of online connectivity in developing intent has been confirmed by recent case studies of already convicted terrorists. Here we use ideas from Complexity to identify dynamical patterns in the online trajectories that individuals take toward developing a high level of extremist support, specifically, for ISIS. Strong memory effects emerge among individuals whose transition is fastest and hence may become \u201cout of the blue\u201d threats in the real world. A generalization of diagrammatic expansion theory helps quantify these characteristics, including the impact of changes in geographical location, and can facilitate prediction of future risks. By quantifying the trajectories that individuals follow on their journey toward expressing high levels of pro\u2010ISIS support\u2014irrespective of whether they then carry out a real\u2010world attack or not\u2014our findings can help move safety debates beyond reliance on static watch\u2010list identifiers such as ethnic background or immigration status and\/or postfact interviews with already convicted individuals. Given the broad commonality of social media platforms, our results likely apply quite generally; for example, even on Telegram where (like Twitter) there is no built\u2010in group feature as in our study, individuals tend to collectively build and pass through the so\u2010called super\u2010group accounts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2018\/3929583","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,15]],"date-time":"2018-05-15T23:31:44Z","timestamp":1526427104000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Complexity in Individual Trajectories toward Online Extremism"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2018","author":[{"given":"Z.","family":"Cao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Y.","family":"Vorobyeva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C.","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3224-3213","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"N. F.","family":"Johnson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,15]]},"reference":[{"volume-title":"The Washington Post, Europe may face a grim future with terrorism as a fact of life","year":"2016","author":"Birnbaum M.","key":"e_1_2_8_1_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","unstructured":"IS group to step up attacks on Europe \u2013 Europol. BBC News http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-38179653."},{"volume-title":"How Islamic State is using consumer drones","year":"2016","author":"Hambling D.","key":"e_1_2_8_3_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_2","unstructured":"BBC News. Russian students targeted as recruits by Islamic State http:\/\/linkis.com\/dmFgu."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315766348"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1556-4029.12312"},{"volume-title":"Terrorism Online: Politics, Law, Technology and Unconventional Violence","year":"2015","author":"Gill P.","key":"e_1_2_8_7_2"},{"volume-title":"Radicalization in the Digital Era: The Use of the Internet in 15 Cases of Terrorism and Extremism","year":"2013","author":"Von Behr L.","key":"e_1_2_8_8_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_2","article-title":"Terrorist Use of the Internet by the Numbers: Quantifying Behaviors, Patterns, and Processes","author":"Gill P.","year":"2016","journal-title":"American Society of Criminology"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400848645"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_2","article-title":"The Islamic States diminishing returns on Twitter","volume":"2","author":"Berger J. 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