{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T04:22:15Z","timestamp":1784348535506,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,17]],"date-time":"2020-06-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1592352000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":168,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Research Council Funded Dengue Mega","award":["14-04"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["14-04"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["BioMed Research International"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p><jats:italic>Background<\/jats:italic>. Early detection of dengue epidemics is a vital aspect in control programmes. Predictions based on larval indices of disease vectors are widely used in dengue control, with defined threshold values. However, there is no set threshold in Sri Lanka at the national or regional levels for <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic> larval indices. Therefore, the current study aimed at developing threshold values for vector indices in two dengue high\u2010risk districts in Sri Lanka. <jats:italic>Methods<\/jats:italic>. Monthly vector indices (House Index [HI], Container Index [CI], Breteau Index for <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic> [BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub>], and <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> [BI<jats:sub>alb<\/jats:sub>]), of ten selected dengue high\u2010risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas located in Colombo and Kandy districts, were collected from January 2010 to June 2019, along with monthly reported dengue cases. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in SPSS (version 23) was used to assess the discriminative power of the larval indices in identifying dengue epidemics and to develop thresholds for the dengue epidemic management. <jats:italic>Results<\/jats:italic>. Only HI and BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> denoted significant associations with dengue epidemics at lag periods of one and two months. Based on <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>, average threshold values were defined for Colombo as Low Risk (2.4 \u2264 BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> &lt; 3.8), Moderate Risk (3.8 \u2264 BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> &lt; 5), High Risk (BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> \u2265 5), along with BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub>\u20092.9 \u2264 BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> &lt; 4.2 (Low Risk), 4.2 \u2264 BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> &lt; 5.3 (Moderate Risk), and BI<jats:sub>agp<\/jats:sub> \u2265 5.3 (High Risk) for Kandy. Further, 5.5 \u2264 HI &lt; 8.9, 8.9 \u2264 HI &lt; 11.9, and HI \u2265 11.9 were defined as Low Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk average thresholds for HI in Colombo, while 6.9 \u2264 HI &lt; 9.1 (Low Risk), 8.9 \u2265 HI &lt; 11.8 (Moderate Risk), and HI \u2265 11.8 (High Risk) were defined for Kandy. <jats:italic>Conclusions<\/jats:italic>. The defined threshold values for <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic> and HI could be recommended as indicators for early detection of dengue epidemics and to drive vector management activities, with the objective of managing dengue epidemics with optimal usage of financial, technical, and human resources in Sri Lanka.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/6386952","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,17]],"date-time":"2020-06-17T23:32:05Z","timestamp":1592436725000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Larval Indices of Vector Mosquitoes as Predictors of Dengue Epidemics: An Approach to Manage Dengue Outbreaks Based on Entomological Parameters in the Districts of Colombo and Kandy, Sri Lanka"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2020","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5687-989X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lahiru","family":"Udayanga","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Subashinie","family":"Aryaprema","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2690-8565","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nayana","family":"Gunathilaka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M. 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